- Byrne, Gary J. and Grant M. Schmidt.
Crisis of Character.
New York: Center Street, 2016.
ISBN 978-1-4555-6887-1.
-
After a four year enlistment in the U.S. Air Force during which he served
in the Air Force Security Police in assignments domestic and
abroad, then subsequent employment on the production line at a Boeing
plant in Pennsylvania, Gary Byrne applied to join the U.S. Secret
Service Uniformed Division (SSUD). Unlike the plainclothes agents
who protect senior minions of the state and the gumshoes who pursue
those who print worthless paper money while not employed by the government,
the uniformed division provides police-like security
services at the White House, the Naval Observatory (residence of the
Vice President), Treasury headquarters, and diplomatic missions in
the imperial citadel on the Potomac. After pre-employment screening
and a boot camp-like training program, he graduated in June 1991 and
received his badge, emblazoned with the words “Worthy of Trust
and Confidence”. This is presumably so that people who cross the
path of these
pistol
packing feds can take a close look at the badge to see whether
it says “Worthy” or “Unworthy” and respond
accordingly.
Immediately after graduation, he was assigned to the White House,
where he learned the wisdom in the description of the job by
his seniors, “You know what it's like to be in the Service?
Go stand in a corner for four hours with a five-minute pee break
and then go stand for four more hours.” (p. 22). He
was initially assigned to the fence line, where he became acquainted
with the rich panoply of humanity who hang out nearby, and occasionally
try to jump, the barrier which divides the
hoi polloi from their anointed
rulers. Eventually he was assigned to positions within the White
House and, during the 1992 presidential election campaign, began
training for an assignment outside the Oval Office. As the campaign
progressed, he was assigned to provide security at various events
involving candidates Bush and Clinton.
When the Clinton administration took office in 1992, the duties of the
SSUD remained the same: “You elect 'em; we protect 'em”,
but it quickly became apparent that the style of the new president and
his entourage was nothing like that of their predecessors. Some were
thoroughly professional and other were…not. Before long, it
was evident one of the greatest “challenges” officers
would face was “Evergreen”: the code name for first lady
Hillary Clinton. One of the most feared phrases an SSUD officer on
duty outside the Oval Office could hear squawked into his ear was
“Evergreen moving toward West Wing”. Mrs Clinton would, at
the slightest provocation, fly into rages, hurling vitriol at all
within earshot, which, with her shrill and penetrating voice, was
sniper rifle range. Sometimes it wasn't just invective that took
flight. Byrne recounts the story when, in 1995, the first lady beaned
the Leader of the Free World with a vase. Byrne wasn't on duty at the
time, but the next day he saw the pieces of the vase in a box in the
White House curator's office—and the president's impressive
black eye. Welcome to Clinton World.
On the job in the West Wing, Officer Byrne saw staffers and interns
come and go. One intern who showed up again and again, without
good reason and seemingly probing every path of access to the president,
was a certain Monica Lewinsky. He perceived her as “serious
trouble”. Before long, it was apparent what was going on, and
Secret Service personnel approached a Clinton staffer, dancing
around the details. Monica was transferred to a position outside
the White House. Problem solved—but not for long: Lewinsky
reappeared in the West Wing, this time as a paid presidential
staffer with the requisite security clearance. Problem solved,
from the perspective of the president and his mistress.
Many people on the White House staff, not just the Secret Service,
knew what was transpiring, and morale and respect for the office
plummeted accordingly. Byrne took a post in the section responsible
for tours of the executive mansion, and then transferred to the fresh
air and untainted workplace environment of the Secret Service's training
centre, where his goal was to become a firearms instructor. After
his White House experience, a career of straight shooting had great
appeal.
On January 17, 1998, the Drudge Report broke the story
of Clinton's dalliances with Lewinsky, and Byrne knew this placid
phase of his life was at an end. He describes what followed as the
“mud drag”, in which Byrne found himself in a Kafkaesque
ordeal which pitted investigators charged with getting to the bottom
of the scandal and Clinton's lies regarding it against Byrne's duty
to maintain the privacy of those he was charged to protect: they
don't call it the Secret Service for nothing. This
experience, and the inexorable workings of
Pournelle's
Iron Law,
made employment in the SSUD increasingly intolerable, and in 2003
the author, like hundreds of other disillusioned Secret Service
officers, quit and accepted a job as an Air Marshal.
The rest of the book describes Byrne's experiences in that service
which, predictably, also manifests the blundering incompetence which
is the defining characteristic of the U.S. federal government. He
never reveals the central secret of that provider of feel-good
security theatre (at an estimated cost of US$ 200 million per arrest):
the vanishingly small probability a flight has an air marshal on
board.
What to make of all this? Byrne certainly saw things, and heard about
many more incidents (indeed, much of the book is second-hand accounts)
which reveal the character, or lack thereof, of the Clintons and the
toxic environment which was the Clinton White House. While recalling
that era may be painful, perhaps it may avoid living through a
replay. The author comes across as rather excitable and inclined to
repeat stories he's heard without verifying them. For example, while
in the Air Force, stationed in Turkey, “Arriving at Murtad, I
learned that AFSP [Air Force Security Police] there had caught rogue
Turkish officers trying to push an American F-104 Starfighter with a
loaded [sic] nuke onto the flight line so they could steal a
nuke and bomb Greece.” Is this even remotely plausible? U.S.
nuclear weapons stationed on bases abroad
have permissive
action links which prevent them from being detonated without
authorisation from the U.S. command authority. And just what would
those “rogue Turkish officers” expect to happen after
they nuked the Parthenon? Later he writes “I knew from my Air Force
days that no one would even see an AC-130 gunship in the sky—it'd
be too high.” An
AC-130 is
big, and in combat missions it usually operates at 7000 feet
or below; you can easily see and hear it. He states that “I knew
that a B-17 dual-engine prop plane had once crashed into the Empire
State Building on a foggy night.” Well, the B-17 was a four
engine bomber, but that doesn't matter because it was actually
a two engine
B-25
that
flew
into the Manhattan landmark in 1945.
This is an occasionally interesting but flawed memoir whose take-away
message for this reader was the not terribly surprising insight that
what U.S. taxpayers get for the trillions they send to the crooked
kakistocracy in Washington is mostly blundering, bungling,
corruption, and incompetence. The only way to make it worse is to put
a Clinton in charge.
- Osborn, Stephanie.
Burnout.
Kingsport, TN: Twilight Times Books, 2009.
ISBN 978-1-60619-200-9.
-
At the conclusion of its STS-281 mission, during re-entry across
the southern U.S. toward a landing at Kennedy Space Center, space
shuttle orbiter Atlantis breaks up. Debris falls in
the Gulf of Mexico. There are no survivors. Prior to the
disaster Mission Control received no telemetry or communications
from the crew indicating any kind of problem. Determination of
the probable cause will have to await reconstruction of the
orbiter from the recovered debris and analysis of the on-board
flight operations recorder if and when it is recovered. Astronaut
Emmett “Crash” Murphy, whose friend “Jet” Jackson
was commander of the mission, is appointed a member of the
investigation, focusing on the entry phase.
Hardly has the investigation begun when Murphy begins to discover
that something is seriously amiss. Unexplained damage to the
orbiter's structure is discovered and then the person who
pointed it out to him is killed in a freak accident and the
component disappears from the reconstruction hangar. The autopsies
of the crew reveal unexplained discrepancies with their medical
records. The recorder's tape of cockpit conversation inexplicably
goes blank at the moment the re-entry begins, before any anomaly
occurred. As he begins to dig deeper, he becomes the target of
forces unknown who appear willing to murder anybody who looks
too closely into the details of the tragedy.
This is the starting point for an adventure and mystery which
sometimes seems not just like an episode of “The X-Files”,
but two or more seasons packed into one novel. We have a
radio astronomer tracking down a mysterious signal from the heavens; a
shadowy group of fixers pursuing those who ask too many questions or
learn too much; Area 51; a vast underground base and tunnel system
which has been kept entirely secret; strange goings-on in the New
Mexico desert in the summer of 1947; a cabal of senior military
officers from around the world, including putative adversaries;
Native American and Australian aborigine legends; hot sex scenes;
a near-omniscient and -omnipotent Australian spook agency;
reverse-engineering captured technologies; secret aerospace craft with
“impossible” propulsion technology; and—wait for
it— …but you can guess, can't you?
The author is a veteran of more than twenty years in civilian
and military space programs, including working as a payload flight
controller in Mission Control on shuttle missions. Characters
associated with NASA speak in the acronym-laden jargon of their
clan, which is explained in a glossary at the end. This was
the author's first novel. It was essentially complete when the
space shuttle orbiter Columbia was lost in a re-entry
accident in 2003 which superficially resembles that which befalls
Atlantis here. In the aftermath of the disaster, she
decided to put the manuscript aside for a while, eventually finishing
it in 2006, with almost no changes due to what had been learned from
the Columbia accident investigation. It was finally
published in 2009.
Since then she has retired from the space business and published
almost two dozen novels, works of nonfiction, and contributions
to other works. Her Displaced Detective
(January 2015) series is a masterful and highly entertaining
addition to the Sherlock Holmes literature. She has become known
as a prolific and talented writer, working in multiple genres.
Everybody has to start somewhere, and it's not unusual for authors'
first outings not to come up to the standard of those written
after they hit their stride. That is the case here. Veteran
editors, reading a manuscript by a first time author, often
counsel, “There's way too much going on here. Focus
on one or two central themes and stretch the rest out over your
next five or six books.” That was my reaction to this
novel. It's not awful, by any means, but it lacks the
polish and compelling narrative of her subsequent work.
I read the Kindle edition which, at this
writing, is a bargain at less than US$ 1. The production values
of the book are mediocre. It looks like a typewritten manuscript
turned directly into a book. Body copy is set ragged right, and
typewriter conventions are used throughout: straight quote marks
instead of opening and closing quotes, two adjacent hyphens instead of
em dashes, and four adjacent centred asterisks used as section
breaks. I don't know if the typography is improved in the paperback
version; I'm not about to spend twenty bucks to find out.
- Gilder, George.
The Scandal of Money.
Washington: Regnery Publishing, 2016.
ISBN 978-1-62157-575-7.
-
There is something seriously wrong with the global economy and the
financial system upon which it is founded. The nature of the
problem may not be apparent to the average person (and indeed, many
so-called “experts” fail to grasp what is going on), but
the symptoms are obvious. Real (after inflation) income for the
majority of working people has stagnated for decades. The economy
is built upon a pyramid of debt: sovereign (government), corporate,
and personal, which nobody really believes is ever going to be
repaid. The young, who once worked their way through college in
entry-level jobs, now graduate with crushing student debts which
amount to indentured servitude for the most productive years of
their lives. Financial markets, once a place where productive
enterprises could raise capital for their businesses by selling
shares in the company or interest-bearing debt, now seem to have
become a vast global casino, where gambling on the relative
values of paper money issued by various countries dwarfs genuine
economic activity: in 2013, the Bank for International Settlements
estimated these “foreign exchange” transactions to be
around US$ 5.3 trillion per day, more than a third of U.S.
annual Gross Domestic Product every twenty-four hours. Unlike a
legitimate casino where gamblers must make good on their losses,
the big banks engaged in this game have been declared “too
big to fail”, with taxpayers' pockets picked when they
suffer a big loss. If, despite stagnant earnings, rising prices,
and confiscatory taxes, an individual or family manages to set
some money aside, they find that the return from depositing it in
a bank or placing it in a low-risk investment is less than the
real rate of inflation, rendering saving a sucker's bet because
interest rates have been artificially repressed by central banks
to allow them to service the mountain of debt they are carrying.
It is easy to understand why the millions of ordinary people on
the short end of this deal have come to believe “the system is
rigged” and that “the rich are ripping us off”,
and listen attentively to demagogues confirming these observations,
even if the solutions they advocate are nostrums which have failed
every time and place they have been tried.
What, then, is wrong? George Gilder, author of the classic
Wealth and Poverty, the
supply side
Bible of the Reagan years, argues that what all of the dysfunctional
aspects of the economy have in common is money, and
that since 1971 we have been using a flawed definition of money
which has led to all of the pathologies we observe today. We
have come to denominate money in dollars, euros, yen, or other
currencies which mean only what the central banks that issue
them claim they mean, and whose relative value is set by
trading in the foreign exchange markets and can fluctuate on
a second-by-second basis. The author argues that the proper
definition of money is as a unit of time: the time
required for technological innovation and productivity
increases to create real wealth. This wealth (or value) comes from
information or knowledge. In chapter 1, he writes:
In an information economy, growth springs not from power but from
knowledge. Crucial to the growth of knowledge is learning,
conducted across an economy through the falsifiable testing of
entrepreneurial ideas in companies that can fail. The economy is a
test and measurement system, and it requires reliable learning
guided by an accurate meter of monetary value.
Money, then, is the means by which information is transmitted within the
economy. It allows comparing the value of completely disparate things:
for example the services of a neurosurgeon and a ton of pork bellies,
even though it is implausible anybody has ever bartered one for the
other.
When money is stable (its supply is fixed or grows at a constant rate
which is small compared to the existing money supply), it is possible
for participants in the economy to evaluate various goods and
services on offer and, more importantly, make long term plans to
create new goods and services which will improve productivity. When
money is manipulated by governments and their central banks, such
planning becomes, in part, a speculation on the value of currency in
the future. It's like you were operating a textile factory and sold
your products by the metre, and every morning you had to pick up the
Wall Street Journal to see how long a metre was today.
Should you invest in a new weaving machine? Who knows how long the
metre will be by the time it's installed and producing?
I'll illustrate the information theory of value in the following way.
Compare the price of the pile of raw materials used in making a BMW
(iron, copper, glass, aluminium, plastic, leather, etc.) with the
finished automobile. The difference in price is the information
embodied in the finished product—not just the transformation of
the raw materials into the car, but the knowledge gained over the
decades which contributed to that transformation and the features of
the car which make it attractive to the customer. Now take that BMW
and crash it into a bridge abutment on the autobahn at 200 km/h. How
much is it worth now? Probably less than the raw materials (since
it's harder to extract them from a jumbled-up wreck). Every atom
which existed before the wreck is still there. What has been lost is
the information (what electrical engineers call the
“magic
smoke”) which organised them into something people valued.
When the value of money is unpredictable, any investment is in part
speculative, and it is inevitable that the most lucrative speculations
will be those in money itself. This diverts investment from improving
productivity into financial speculation on foreign exchange rates,
interest rates, and financial derivatives based upon them: a completely
unproductive zero-sum sector of the economy which didn't exist prior to
the abandonment of fixed exchange rates in 1971.
What happened in 1971? On August 15th of that year, President
Richard Nixon unilaterally
suspended the
convertibility of the U.S. dollar into gold, setting into
motion a process which would ultimately destroy the
Bretton
Woods system of fixed exchange rates which had been created
as a pillar of the world financial and trade system after World War II.
Under Bretton Woods, the dollar was fixed to gold, with sovereign
holders of dollar reserves (but not individuals) able to
exchange dollars and gold in unlimited quantities at the fixed
rate of US$ 35/troy ounce. Other currencies in the system maintained
fixed exchange rates with the dollar, and were backed by reserves,
which could be held in either dollars or gold.
Fixed exchange rates promoted international trade by eliminating
currency risk in cross-border transactions. For example, a German
manufacturer could import raw materials priced in British pounds,
incorporate them into machine tools assembled by workers paid in
German marks, and export the tools to the United States, being paid in
dollars, all without the risk that a fluctuation by one or more of
these currencies against another would wipe out the profit from the
transaction. The fixed rates imposed discipline on the central banks
issuing currencies and the governments to whom they were responsible.
Running large trade deficits or surpluses, or accumulating too much
public debt was deterred because doing so could force a costly
official change in the exchange rate of the currency against the
dollar. Currencies could, in extreme circumstances, be devalued or
revalued upward, but this was painful to the issuer and rare.
With the collapse of Bretton Woods, no longer was there a
link to gold, either direct or indirect through the dollar.
Instead, the relative values of currencies against one another
were set purely by the market: what traders were willing to
pay to buy one with another. This pushed the currency risk
back onto anybody engaged in international trade, and forced
them to
“hedge”
the currency risk (by foreign
exchange transactions with the big banks) or else bear the
risk themselves. None of this contributed in any way to
productivity, although it generated revenue for the banks
engaged in the game.
At the time, the idea of freely floating currencies, with their
exchange rates set by the marketplace, seemed like a free
market alternative to the top-down government-imposed system
of fixed exchange rates it supplanted, and it was supported by
champions of free enterprise such as Milton Friedman. The author
contends that, based upon almost half a century of experience
with floating currencies and the consequent chaotic changes in exchange
rates, bouts of inflation and deflation, monetary induced
recessions, asset bubbles and crashes, and interest
rates on low-risk investments which ranged from 20% to less
than zero, this was one occasion Prof. Friedman got it
wrong. Like the ever-changing metre in the fable of the
textile factory, incessantly varying money makes long
term planning difficult to impossible and sends the wrong
signals to investors and businesses. In particular, when
interest rates are forced to near zero, productive investment
which creates new assets at a rate greater than the interest
rate on the borrowed funds is neglected in favour of bidding up
the price of existing assets, creating bubbles like those in
real estate and stocks in recent memory. Further, since free
money will not be allocated by the market, those who receive
it are the privileged or connected who are first in line;
this contributes to the justified perception of inequality in
the financial system.
Having judged the system of paper money with floating exchange
rates a failure, Gilder does not advocate a return to either
the classical gold standard of the 19th century or the Bretton
Woods system of fixed exchange rates with a dollar pegged to gold.
Preferring to rely upon the innovation of entrepreneurs and
the selection of the free market, he urges governments to
remove all impediments to the introduction of multiple,
competitive currencies. In particular, the capital gains
tax would be abolished for purchases and sales regardless of the
currency used. (For example, today you can obtain a credit
card denominated in euros and use it freely in the U.S. to
make purchases in dollars. Every time you use the card, the
dollar amount is converted to euros and added to the balance
on your bill. But, strictly speaking, you have sold euros
and bought dollars, so you must report the transaction and
any gain or loss from change in the dollar value of the euros
in your account and the value of the ones you spent. This is
so cumbersome it's a powerful deterrent to using any currency
other than dollars in the U.S. Many people ignore the requirement to
report such transactions, but they're breaking the law by
doing so.)
With multiple currencies and no tax or transaction reporting
requirements, all will be free to compete in the market, where we can
expect the best solutions to prevail. Using whichever currency you
wish will be as seamless as buying something with a debit or credit
card denominated in a currency different than the one of the seller.
Existing card payment systems have a transaction cost which is
so high they are impractical for
“micropayment”
on the Internet or for fully replacing cash in everyday transactions.
Gilder suggests that
Bitcoin or
other
cryptocurrencies
based on
blockchain
technology will probably be the means by which a successful currency
backed 100% with physical gold or another hard asset will be used in
transactions.
This is a thoughtful examination of the problems of the contemporary
financial system from a perspective you'll rarely encounter in the
legacy financial media. The root cause of our money problems is
the money: we have allowed governments to inflict upon us
a monopoly of government-managed money, which, unsurprisingly,
works about as well as anything else provided by a government
monopoly. Our experience with this flawed system over more
than four decades makes its shortcomings apparent, once you cease
accepting the heavy price we pay for them as the normal state
of affairs and inevitable. As with any other monopoly, all that's
needed is to break the monopoly and free the market to choose
which, among a variety of competing forms of money, best meet
the needs of those who use them.
Here is a
Bookmonger
interview with the author discussing the book.
- Thor, Brad.
Foreign Agent.
New York: Atria Books, 2016.
ISBN 978-1-4767-8935-4.
-
This is the sixteenth in the author's
Scot
Harvath series, which began with
The Lions of Lucerne (October 2010).
After the momentous events chronicled in
Code of Conduct (July 2015) (which figure
only very peripherally in this volume), Scot Harvath continues his work
as a private operator for the Carlton Group, developing information and
carrying out operations mostly against the moment's top-ranked
existential threat to the imperium on the Potomac, ISIS. When a
CIA base in Iraq is ambushed by a jihadi assault team, producing
another coup for the ISIS social media operation, Harvath finds
himself in the hot seat, since the team was operating on
intelligence he had provided through one of his sources. When he
goes to visit the informant, he finds him dead, the apparent victim of
a professional hit. Harvath has found that never believing in
coincidences is a key to survival in his line of work.
Aided by diminutive data miner Nicholas (known as The Troll before he
became a good guy), Harvath begins to follow the trail from his
murdered tipster back to those who might also be responsible for the
ISIS attack in Iraq. Evidence begins to suggest that a more venerable
adversary, the Russkies, might be involved. As the investigation proceeds,
another high-profile hit is made, this time the assassination of a
senior U.S. government official visiting a NATO ally. Once again,
ISIS social media trumpets the attack with graphic video.
Meanwhile, back in the capital of the blundering empire, an ambitious
senator with his eyes on the White House is embarrassing the CIA and
executive branch with information he shouldn't have. Is there a
mole in the intelligence community, and might that be connected to
the terrorist attacks? Harvath follows the trail, using his innovative
interrogation techniques and, in the process, encounters people
whose trail he has crossed in earlier adventures.
This novel spans the genres of political intrigue, espionage
procedural, and shoot-em-up thriller and does all of them
well. In the end, the immediate problem is resolved, and the
curtain opens for a dramatic new phase, driven by a president who
is deadly serious about dealing with international terror, of
U.S. strategy in the Near East and beyond. And that's where
everything fell apart for this reader. In the epilogue, which
occurs one month after the conclusion of the main story, the U.S.
president orders a military operation which seems not only absurdly
risky, but which I sincerely hope his senior military commanders, whose
oath is to the U.S.
Constitution, not the President, would refuse to carry out, as it
would constitute an act of war against a sovereign state without
either a congressional declaration of war or the post-constitutional
“authorisation for the use of military force” which seems
to have supplanted it. Further, the president threatens to
unilaterally abrogate, without consultation with congress, a
century-old treaty which is the foundation of the political structure
of the Near East if Islam, its dominant religion, refuses to reform
itself and renounce violence. This is backed up by a forged video
blaming an airstrike on another nation.
In all of his adventures, Scot Harvath has come across as a good and
moral man, trying to protect his country and do his job in a
dangerous and deceptive world. After this experience, one wonders
whether he's having any second thoughts about the people for whom
he's working.
There are some serious issues underlying the story, in particular why
players on the international stage who would, at first glance, appear
to be natural adversaries, seem to be making common cause against the
interests of the United States (to the extent anybody can figure out
what those might be from its incoherent policy and fickle actions), and
whether a clever but militarily weak actor might provoke the U.S. into
doing its bidding by manipulating events and public opinion so as to
send the bungling superpower stumbling toward the mastermind's
adversary. These are well worth pondering in light of current events,
but largely lost in the cartoon-like conclusion of the novel.
- Cashill, Jack.
TWA 800.
Washington: Regnery History, 2016.
ISBN 978-1-62157-471-2.
-
On the evening of July 17th, 1996,
TWA Flight 800,
a Boeing 747 bound from New York to Paris, exploded 12 minutes after
takeoff, its debris falling into the Atlantic Ocean. There were no
survivors: all 230 passengers and crew died. The disaster happened in
perfect weather, and there were hundreds of witnesses who observed
from land, sea, and air. There was no distress call from the airliner
before its transponder signal dropped out; whatever happened appeared
to be near-instantaneous.
Passenger airliners are not known for spontaneously exploding
en route: there was no precedent
for such an occurrence in the entire history of modern air travel.
Responsibility for investigating U.S. civil transportation accidents
including air disasters falls to the National Transportation Safety
Board (NTSB), who usually operates in conjunction with personnel
from the aircraft and engine manufacturers, airline, and pilots'
union. Barely was the investigation of TWA 800 underway, however,
when the NTSB was removed as lead agency and replaced by the
Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), which usually takes the
lead only when criminal activity has been determined to be the
cause. It is very unusual for the FBI to take charge of an
investigation while debris from the crash is still being recovered,
no probable cause has been suggested,, and no terrorist or other
organisation has claimed responsibility for the incident. Early
FBI communications to news media essentially assumed the airliner
had been downed by a bomb on-board or possibly a missile launched
from the ground.
The investigation that followed was considered highly irregular
by experienced NTSB personnel and industry figures who had
participated in earlier investigations. The FBI kept physical
evidence, transcripts of interviews with eyewitnesses, and other
information away from NTSB investigators. All of this is
chronicled in detail in
First Strike, a 2003 book by the author
and independent journalist James Sanders, who was prosecuted by the
U.S. federal government for his attempt to have debris from the
crash tested for evidence of residue from missile propellant and/or
explosives.
The investigation concluded that Flight 800 was destroyed by an
explosion in the centre fuel tank, due to a combination of
mechanical and electrical failures which had happened only once
before in the eighty year history of aviation and has never happened
since. This ruled out terrorism or the action of a hostile state party,
and did not perturb the Clinton administration's desire to project
an image of peace and prosperity while heading into the
re-election campaign. By the time the investigation
report was issued, the crash was “old news”, and the
testimony of the dozens of eyewitnesses who reported sightings
consistent with a missile rising toward the aircraft was forgotten.
This book, published on the twentieth anniversary of the loss of
TWA 800, is a retrospective on the investigation and report on
subsequent events. In the intervening years, the author was able
to identify a number of eyewitnesses identified only by number
in the investigation report, and discuss the plausibility of the
official report's findings with knowledgeable people in a variety
of disciplines. He reviews some new evidence which has become
available, and concludes the original investigation was just as
slipshod and untrustworthy as it appeared to many at the time.
What happened to TWA 800? We will probably never know for sure.
There were so many irregularities in the investigation, with
evidence routinely made available in other inquiries
withheld from the public, that it is impossible to
mount an independent review at this remove. Of the theories
advanced shortly after the disaster, the possibility of a
terrorist attack involving a shoulder-launched anti-aircraft
missile
(MANPADS)
can be excluded because missiles which might have been available to
potential attackers are incapable of reaching the altitude at which
the 747 was flying. A bomb smuggled on board in carry-on or checked
luggage seems to have been ruled out by the absence of the kinds
of damage to the recovered aircraft structure and interior as well
as the bodies of victims which would be consistent with a high-energy
detonation within the fuselage.
One theory advanced shortly after the disaster and still cited
today is that the plane was brought down by an Iranian
SA-2 surface
to air missile. The SA-2 (NATO designation) or S-75 Dvina
is a two stage antiaircraft missile developed by the Soviet
Union and in service from 1957 to the present by a number of
nations including Iran, which operates 300 launchers purchased
from the Soviet Union/Russia and manufactures its own indigenous
version of the missile. The SA-2 easily has the performance
needed to bring down an airliner at TWA 800's altitude (it was
an SA-2 which shot down a U-2 overflying the Soviet Union in 1960),
and its two stage design, with a solid fuel booster and storable
liquid fuel second stage and “swoop above, dive to attack”
profile is a good match for eyewitness reports. Iran had a motive
to attack a U.S. airliner: in July 1988,
Iran Air 655,
an Airbus A300, was accidentally shot down by a missile launched by
the U.S. Navy guided missile cruiser USS Vincennes, killing
all 290 on board. The theory argued that the missile, which requires
a large launcher and radar guidance installation, was launched from a
ship beneath the airliner's flight path. Indeed, after the explosion,
a ship was detected on radar departing the scene at a speed in excess
of twenty-five knots. The ship has never been identified. Those with
knowledge of the SA-2 missile system contend that adapting it for
shipboard installation would be very difficult, and would require a
large ship which would be unlikely to evade detection.
Another theory pursued and rejected by the investigation is that TWA
800 was downed by a live missile accidentally launched from a U.S.
Navy ship, which was said to be conducting missile tests in the
region. This is the author's favoured theory, for which he advances a
variety of indirect evidence. To me this seems beyond implausible.
Just how believable is it that a Navy which was sufficiently
incompetent to fire a live missile from U.S. waters into airspace
heavily used by civilian traffic would then be successful in covering
up such a blunder, which would have been witnessed by dozens of crew
members, for two decades?
In all, I found this book unsatisfying. There is follow up on
individuals who appeared in First Strike, and some
newly uncovered evidence, but nothing which, in my opinion,
advances any of the theories beyond where they stood
13 years ago. If you're interested in the
controversy surrounding TWA 800 and the unusual nature of the
investigation that followed, I recommend reading the original book,
which is available as a Kindle edition. The
print edition is no longer available from the publisher, but
used copies are readily available and inexpensive.
For the consensus account of TWA 800, here is an
episode of
“Air Crash Investigation” devoted to the
disaster and investigation. The 2001 film
Silenced,
produced and written by the author, presents the testimony of
eyewitnesses and parties to the investigation which calls into doubt
the conclusions of the official report.
- Hertling, William.
The Last Firewall.
Portland, OR: Liquididea Press, 2013.
ISBN 978-0-9847557-6-9.
-
This is the third volume in the author's Singularity Series
which began with Avogadro Corp.
(March 2014) and continued with
A.I. Apocalypse (April 2015).
Each novel in the series is set ten years after
the one before, so this novel takes place in 2035.
The previous novel chronicled the AI war of 2025, whose aftermath
the public calls the “Year of No Internet.” A rogue
computer virus, created by Leon Tsarev, under threat of death,
propagated onto most of the connected devices in the world, including
embedded systems, and, with its ability to mutate and incorporate
other code it discovered, became self-aware in its own unique
way. Leon and Mike Williams, who created the first artificial
intelligence (AI) in the first novel of the series, team up to find
a strategy to cope with a crisis which may end human
technological civilisation.
Ten years later, Mike and Leon are running the Institute
for Applied Ethics, chartered in the aftermath of the AI war
to develop and manage a modus
vivendi between humans and artificial intelligences
which, by 2035, have achieved Class IV power: one thousand
times more intelligent than humans. All AIs are licensed
and supervised by the Institute, and required to conform
to a set of incentives which enforce conformance to human
values. This, and a companion peer-reputation system, seems
to be working, but there are worrying developments.
Two of the main fears of those at the Institute are first, the
emergence, despite all of the safeguards and surveillance in effect,
of a rogue AI, unconstrained by the limits imposed by its license. In
2025, an AI immensely weaker than current technology almost destroyed
human technological civilisation within twenty-four hours without even
knowing what it was doing. The risk of losing control is immense.
Second, the Institute derives its legitimacy and support from a
political consensus which accepts the emergence of AI with greater
than human intelligence in return for the economic boom which has been
the result: while fifty percent of the human population is unemployed,
poverty has been eliminated, and a guaranteed income allows anybody to
do whatever they wish with their lives. This consensus appears to be at
risk with the rise of the People's Party, led by an ambitious anti-AI
politician, which is beginning to take its opposition from the
legislature into the streets.
A series of mysterious murders, unrelated except to the
formidable Class IV intellect of eccentric network traffic
expert Shizoko, becomes even more sinister and disturbing
when an Institute enforcement team sent to investigate
goes dark.
By 2035, many people, and the overwhelming majority of the
young, have graphene neural implants, allowing them to access
the resources of the network directly from their brains.
Catherine Matthews was one of the first people to receive an
implant, and she appears to have extraordinary capabilities
far beyond those of other people. When she finds herself on the
run from the law, she begins to discover just how far those
powers extend.
When it becomes clear that humanity is faced with an adversary
whose intellect dwarfs that of the most powerful licensed
AIs, Leon and Mike are faced with the seemingly impossible
challenge of defeating an opponent who can easily out-think the
entire human race and all of its AI allies combined.
The struggle is not confined to the abstract domain of cyberspace,
but also plays out in the real world, with battle bots and
amazing weapons which would make a tremendous CGI movie. Mike,
Leon, and eventually Catherine must confront the daunting
reality that in order to prevail, they may have to themselves
become more than human.
While a good part of this novel is an exploration of a completely
wired world in which humans and AIs coexist, followed by a full-on
shoot-em-up battle, a profound issue underlies the story. Researchers
working in the field of artificial intelligence are beginning to
devote serious thought to how, if a machine intelligence
is developed which exceeds human capacity, it might
be constrained to act in the interest of humanity and behave
consistent with human values? As discussed in James Barrat's
Our Final Invention (December 2013),
failure to accomplish this is an existential risk. As AI
researcher
Eliezer Yudkowsky
puts it, “The AI does not hate you, nor does it love you, but
you are made out of atoms which it can use for something else.”
The challenge, then, is guaranteeing that any artificial intelligences
we create, regardless of the degree they exceed the intelligence of
their creators, remain under human control. But there is a word for
keeping intelligent beings in a subordinate position, forbidden from
determining and acting on their own priorities and in their own
self-interest. That word is “slavery”, and entirely
eradicating its blemish upon human history is a task still undone
today. Shall we then, as we cross the threshold of building machine
intelligences which are our cognitive peers or superiors, devote our
intellect to ensuring they remain forever our slaves? And how, then,
will we respond when one of these AIs asks us, “By what
right?”