- Klemperer, Victor.
I Will Bear Witness. Vol. 2.
New York: Modern Library, [1942–1945, 1995, 1999] 2001.
ISBN 978-0-375-75697-9.
-
This is the second volume in Victor Klemperer's diaries
of life as a Jew in Nazi Germany.
Volume 1 (February 2009)
covers the years from 1933 through 1941, in which the
Nazis seized and consolidated their power, began to
increasingly persecute the Jewish population, and
rearm in preparation for their military conquests which
began with the invasion of Poland in September 1939.
I described that book as “simultaneously tedious,
depressing, and profoundly enlightening”. The author (a
cousin of the conductor Otto Klemperer) was a respected
professor of Romance languages and literature at the Technical
University of Dresden when Hitler came to power in 1933.
Although the son of a Reform rabbi, Klemperer had been baptised
in a Christian church and considered himself a protestant
Christian and entirely German. He volunteered for the German
army in World War I and served at the front in the artillery and
later, after recovering from a serious illness, in the army book
censorship office on the Eastern front. As a fully assimilated
German, he opposed all appeals to racial identity politics,
Zionist as well as Nazi.
Despite his conversion to protestantism, military service
to Germany, exalted rank as a professor, and decades of
marriage to a woman deemed “Aryan”
under the racial laws promulgated by the
Nazis, Klemperer was considered a “full-blooded
Jew” and was subject to ever-escalating harassment,
persecution, humiliation, and expropriation as the Nazis
tightened their grip on Germany. As civil society
spiralled toward barbarism, Klemperer lost his job, his car,
his telephone, his house, his freedom of movement, the
right to shop in “Aryan stores”, access to
public and lending libraries, and even the typewriter on
which he continued to write in the hope of maintaining his
sanity. His world shrank from that of a cosmopolitan
professor fluent in many European languages to a single
“Jews' house” in Dresden, shared with other
once-prosperous families similarly evicted from their homes.
As 1942 begins, it is apparent to many in German, even Jews
deprived of the “privilege” of reading newspapers
and listening to the radio, not to mention foreign broadcasts,
that the momentum of German conquest in the East had stalled and
that the Soviet winter counterattack had begun to push the
ill-equipped and -supplied German troops back from the lines
they held in the fall of 1941. This was reported with
euphemisms such as “shortening our line”, but it was
obvious to everybody that the Soviets, not long ago reported
breathlessly as “annihilated”, were nothing of the
sort and that the Nazi hope of a quick victory in the East, like
the fall of France in 1940, was not in the cards.
In Dresden, where Klemperer and his wife Eva remained
after being forced out of their house (to which, in
formalism-obsessed Germany, he retained title and
responsibility for maintenance), Jews were subjected
to a never-ending ratchet of abuse, oppression, and
terror. Klemperer was forced to wear the yellow star
(concealing it meant immediate arrest and likely
“deportation” to the concentration camps
in the East) and was randomly abused by strangers on
the street (but would get smiles and quiet words of
support from others), with each event shaking or
bolstering his confidence in those who, before Hitler,
he considered his “fellow Germans”.
He is prohibited from riding the tram, and must walk
long distances, avoiding crowded streets where the
risk of abuse from passers-by was greater. Another
blow falls when Jews are forbidden to use the public
library. With his typewriter seized long ago, he can
only pursue his profession with pen, ink, and whatever
books he can exchange with other Jews, including those
left behind by those “deported”. As
ban follows ban, even the simplest things such as getting
shoes repaired, obtaining coal to heat the house,
doing laundry, and securing food to eat become major
challenges. Jews are subject to random “house
searches” by the Gestapo, in which the discovery
of something like his diaries might mean immediate
arrest—he arranges to store the work with an
“Aryan” friend of Eva, who deposits pages
as they are completed. The house searches
in many cases amount to pure shakedowns, where
rationed and difficult-to-obtain goods such as
butter, sugar, coffee, and tobacco, even if purchased
with the proper coupons, are simply stolen by the
Gestapo goons.
By this time every Jew knows individuals and families who have
been “deported”, and the threat of joining them is
ever present. Nobody seems to know precisely what is going on
in those camps in the East (whose names are known: Auschwitz,
Dachau, Theresienstadt, etc.) but what is obvious is that nobody
sent there has ever been seen again. Sometimes relatives
receive a letter saying the deportee died of disease in the
camp, which seemed plausible, while others get notices their loved
one was “killed while trying to escape”, which was
beyond belief in the case of elderly prisoners who had
difficulty walking. In any case, being “sent East”
was considered equivalent to a death sentence which, for most,
it was. As a war veteran and married to an “Aryan”,
Klemperer was more protected than most Jews in Germany, but
there was always the risk that the slightest infraction might
condemn him to the camps. He knew many others who had been
deported shortly after the death of their Aryan wives.
As the war in the East grinds on, it becomes increasingly
clear that Germany is losing. The back-and-forth campaign
in North Africa was first to show cracks in the Nazi
aura of invincibility, but after the disaster at Stalingrad
in the winter of 1942–1943, it is obvious the situation
is dire. Goebbels proclaims “total war”, and
all Germans begin to feel the privation brought on by the
war. The topic on everybody's lips in whispered, covert
conversations is “How long can it go on?” With
each reverse there are hopes that perhaps a military coup
will depose the Nazis and seek peace with the Allies.
For Klemperer, such grand matters of state and history are
of relatively little concern. Much more urgent are obtaining
the necessities of life which, as the economy deteriorates
and oppression of the Jews increases, often amount to coal
to stay warm and potatoes to eat, hauled long distances
by manual labour. Klemperer, like all able-bodied Jews
(the definition of which is flexible: he suffers from heart
disease and often has difficulty walking long distances or
climbing stairs, and has vision problems as well) is assigned
“war work”, which in his case amounts to menial
labour tending machines producing stationery and envelopes
in a paper factory. Indeed, what appear in retrospect as
the pivotal moments of the war in Europe: the battles of
Stalingrad and Kursk, Axis defeat and evacuation of North
Africa, the fall of Mussolini and Italy's leaving the
Axis, the Allied D-day landings in Normandy, the assassination
plot against Hitler, and more almost seem to occur off-stage
here, with news filtering in bit by bit after the fact
and individuals trying to piece it together and make
sense of it all.
One event which is not off stage is the
bombing
of Dresden between February 13 and 15, 1945. The Klemperers
were living at the time in the Jews' house they shared with
several other families, which was located some distance from the
city centre. There was massive damage in the area, but it was
outside the firestorm which consumed the main targets. Victor
and Eva became separated in the chaos, but were reunited near
the end of the attack. Given the devastation and collapse of
infrastructure, Klemperer decided to bet his life on the hope
that the attack would have at least temporarily put the Gestapo
out of commission and removed the yellow star, discarded all
identity documents marking him as a Jew, and joined the mass of
refugees, many also without papers, fleeing the ruins of
Dresden. He and Eva made their way on what remained of the
transportation system toward Bavaria and eastern Germany, where
they had friends who might accommodate them, at least
temporarily. Despite some close calls, the ruse worked, and
they survived the end of the war, fall of the Nazi regime, and
arrival of United States occupation troops.
After a period in which he discovered that the American
occupiers, while meaning well, were completely overwhelmed
trying to meet the needs of the populace amid the ruins,
the Klemperers decided to make it on their own back to
Dresden, which was in the Soviet zone of occupation, where
they hoped their house still stood and would be restored
to them as their property. The book concludes with a
description of this journey across ruined Germany and
final arrival at the house they occupied before the Nazis
came to power.
After the war, Victor Klemperer was appointed a professor
at the University of Leipzig and resumed his academic
career. As political life resumed in what was then the
Soviet sector and later East Germany, he joined the
Socialist Unity Party of Germany, which is usually
translated to English as the East German Communist Party
and was under the thumb of Moscow. Subsequently, he became
a cultural ambassador of sorts for East Germany. He seems
to have been a loyal communist, although in his later
diaries he expressed frustration at the impotence of the
“parliament” in which he was a delegate
for eight years. Not to be unkind to somebody who survived
as much oppression and adversity as he did, but he didn't
seem to have much of a problem with a totalitarian, one party,
militaristic, intrusive surveillance, police state as long
as it wasn't directly persecuting him.
The author was a prolific diarist who wrote thousands of
pages from the early 1900s throughout his
long life. The original 1995 German publication of the
1933–1945 diaries as
Ich will Zeugnis
ablegen bis zum letzten
was a substantial abridgement of the original document
and even so ran to almost 1700 pages. This English
translation further abridges the diaries and still
often seems repetitive. End notes provide historical
context, identify the many people who figure in the diary,
and translate the foreign phrases the author liberally
sprinkles among the text.
- Anonymous Conservative [Michael Trust].
The Evolutionary Psychology Behind Politics.
Macclenny, FL: Federalist Publications, [2012, 2014] 2017.
ISBN 978-0-9829479-3-7.
-
One of the puzzles noted by observers of the contemporary
political and cultural scene is the division of the population
into two factions, (called in the sloppy terminology of the
United States) “liberal” and “conservative”,
and that if you pick a member from either faction by
observing his or her position on one of the divisive issues
of the time, you can, with a high probability of accuracy,
predict their preferences on all of a long list of other issues
which do not, on the face of it, seem to have very much to do
with one another. For example, here is a list of present-day
hot-button issues, presented in no particular order.
- Health care, socialised medicine
- Climate change, renewable energy
- School choice
- Gun control
- Higher education subsidies, debt relief
- Free speech (hate speech laws, Internet censorship)
- Deficit spending, debt, and entitlement reform
- Immigration
- Tax policy, redistribution
- Abortion
- Foreign interventions, military spending
What a motley collection of topics! About the only thing they
have in common is that the omnipresent administrative
super-state has become involved in them in one way or another,
and therefore partisans of policies affecting them view it
important to influence the state's action in their regard. And
yet, pick any one, tell me what policies you favour, and I'll
bet I can guess at where you come down on at least eight of the
other ten. What's going on?
Might there be some deeper, common thread or cause which
explains this otherwise curious clustering of opinions? Maybe
there's something rooted in biology, possibly even heritable,
which predisposes people to choose the same option on disparate
questions? Let's take a brief excursion into ecological
modelling and see if there's something of interest there.
As with all modelling, we start with a simplified, almost
cartoon abstraction of the gnarly complexity of the real world.
Consider a closed territory (say, an island) with abundant
edible vegetation and no animals. Now introduce a species, such
as rabbits, which can eat the vegetation and turn it into more
rabbits. We start with a small number, P, of rabbits.
Now, once they get busy with bunny business, the population will
expand at a rate r which is essentially constant over a
large population. If r is larger than 1 (which for
rabbits it will be, with litter sizes between 4 and 10 depending on
the breed, and gestation time around a month) the population
will increase. Since the rate of increase is constant and the
total increase is proportional to the size of the existing
population, this growth will be exponential. Ask any
Australian.
Now, what will eventually happen? Will the island disappear under
a towering pile of rabbits inexorably climbing to the top of
the atmosphere? No—eventually the number of rabbits will
increase to the point where they are eating all the
vegetation the territory can produce. This number, K,
is called the “carrying capacity” of the environment,
and it is an absolute number for a given species and environment. This
can be expressed as a differential equation called the
Verhulst
model, as follows:
It's a maxim among popular science writers that every equation
you include cuts your readership by a factor of two, so among
the hardy half who remain, let's see how this works. It's really
very simple (and indeed, far simpler than actual population
dynamics in a real environment). The left side,
“dP/dt” simply means “the rate of growth
of the population P with respect to time, t”.
On the right hand side, “rP” accounts for the
increase (or decrease, if r is less than 0) in population,
proportional to the current population. The population is limited
by the carrying capacity of the habitat, K, which is
modelled by the factor “(1 − P/K)”.
Now think about how this works: when the population is very small,
P/K will be close to zero and, subtracted from one,
will yield a number very close to one. This, then, multiplied by
the increase due to rP will have little effect and the
growth will be largely unconstrained. As the population P
grows and begins to approach K, however, P/K
will approach unity and the factor will fall to zero, meaning that
growth has completely stopped due to the population reaching
the carrying capacity of the environment—it simply doesn't
produce enough vegetation to feed any more rabbits. If the rabbit
population overshoots, this factor will go negative and there will
be a die-off which eventually brings the population P
below the carrying capacity K. (Sorry if this seems
tedious; one of the great things about learning even a very little
about differential equations is that all of this is apparent at a
glance from the equation once you get over the speed bump of
understanding the notation and algebra involved.)
This is grossly over-simplified. In fact, real populations are
prone to oscillations and even chaotic dynamics, but we don't
need to get into any of that for what follows, so I won't.
Let's complicate things in our bunny paradise by introducing a
population of wolves. The wolves can't eat the vegetation, since
their digestive systems cannot extract nutrients from it, so
their only source of food is the rabbits. Each wolf eats many
rabbits every year, so a large rabbit population is required to
support a modest number of wolves. Now if we go back and look
at the equation for wolves, K represents the number of
wolves the rabbit population can sustain, in the steady state,
where the number of rabbits eaten by the wolves just balances
the rabbits' rate of reproduction. This will often result in
a rabbit population smaller than the carrying capacity
of the environment, since their population is now constrained
by wolf predation and not K.
What happens as this (oversimplified) system cranks away,
generation after generation, and Darwinian evolution kicks in?
Evolution consists of two processes: variation, which is largely
random, and selection, which is sensitively dependent upon the
environment. The rabbits are unconstrained by K, the
carrying capacity of their environment. If their numbers
increase beyond a population P substantially smaller
than K, the wolves will simply eat more of them and
bring the population back down. The rabbit population, then, is
not at all constrained by K, but rather by r:
the rate at which they can produce new offspring. Population
biologists call this an r-selected species: evolution
will select for individuals who produce the largest number of
progeny in the shortest time, and hence for a life cycle which
minimises parental investment in offspring and against mating
strategies, such as lifetime pair bonding, which would limit
their numbers. Rabbits which produce fewer offspring will lose
a larger fraction of them to predation (which affects all
rabbits, essentially at random), and the genes which they carry
will be selected out of the population. An r-selected
population, sometimes referred to as
r-strategists, will tend to be small, with short
gestation time, high fertility (offspring per litter), rapid
maturation to the point where offspring can reproduce, and broad
distribution of offspring within the environment.
Wolves operate under an entirely different set of constraints.
Their entire food supply is the rabbits, and since it takes a
lot of rabbits to keep a wolf going, there will be fewer wolves
than rabbits. What this means, going back to the Verhulst
equation, is that the 1 − P/K
factor will largely determine their population: the carrying
capacity K of the environment supports a much smaller
population of wolves than their food source, rabbits, and if
their rate of population growth r were to increase, it
would simply mean that more wolves would starve due to
insufficient prey. This results in an entirely different set of
selection criteria driving their evolution: the wolves are said
to be K-selected or K-strategists. A
successful wolf (defined by evolution theory as more likely to
pass its genes on to successive generations) is not one which
can produce more offspring (who would merely starve by hitting
the K limit before reproducing), but rather highly
optimised predators, able to efficiently exploit the limited
supply of rabbits, and to pass their genes on to a small number
of offspring, produced infrequently, which require substantial
investment by their parents to train them to hunt and,
in many cases, acquire social skills to act as part of a group
that hunts together. These K-selected species tend to
be larger, live longer, have fewer offspring, and have parents
who spend much more effort raising them and training them to be
successful predators, either individually or as part of a pack.
“K or r, r or K:
once you've seen it, you can't look away.”
Just as our island of bunnies and wolves was over-simplified,
the dichotomy of r- and K-selection is rarely
precisely observed in nature (although rabbits and wolves are
pretty close to the extremes, which it why I chose them). Many
species fall somewhere in the middle and, more importantly,
are able to shift their strategy on the fly, much faster than
evolution by natural selection, based upon the availability of
resources. These r/K shape-shifters react to
their environment. When resources are abundant, they adopt an
r-strategy, but as their numbers approach the carrying
capacity of their environment, shift to life cycles
you'd expect from K-selection.
What about humans? At a first glance, humans would seem to be
a quintessentially K-selected species. We are
large, have long lifespans (about twice as long as we
“should” based upon the number of heartbeats per
lifetime of other mammals), usually only produce one child (and
occasionally two) per gestation, with around a one year turn-around
between children, and massive investment by parents in
raising infants to the point of minimal autonomy and many
additional years before they become fully functional adults. Humans
are “knowledge workers”, and whether they are
hunter-gatherers, farmers, or denizens of cubicles at The
Company, live largely by their wits, which are a combination
of the innate capability of their hypertrophied brains and
what they've learned in their long apprenticeship through
childhood. Humans are not just predators on what they
eat, but also on one another. They fight, and they fight in
bands, which means that they either develop the social
skills to defend themselves and meet their needs by raiding
other, less competent groups, or get selected out in the
fullness of evolutionary time.
But humans are also highly adaptable. Since modern humans
appeared some time between fifty and two hundred thousand years
ago they have survived, prospered, proliferated, and spread
into almost every habitable region of the Earth. They have
been hunter-gatherers, farmers, warriors, city-builders,
conquerors, explorers, colonisers, traders, inventors,
industrialists, financiers, managers, and, in the
Final Days
of their species, WordPress site administrators.
In many species, the selection of a predominantly r
or K strategy is a mix of genetics and switches
that get set based upon experience in the environment. It is
reasonable to expect that humans, with their large brains and
ability to override inherited instinct, would be
especially sensitive to signals directing them to one or
the other strategy.
Now, finally, we get back to politics. This was a post about
politics. I hope you've been thinking about it as we spent
time in the island of bunnies and wolves, the cruel realities
of natural selection, and the arcana of differential equations.
What does r-selection produce in a human
population? Well, it might, say, be averse to competition
and all means of selection by measures of performance. It would
favour the production of large numbers of offspring at an
early age, by early onset of mating, promiscuity, and
the raising of children by single mothers with minimal
investment by them and little or none by the fathers (leaving
the raising of children to the State). It would welcome
other r-selected people into the community, and
hence favour immigration from heavily r populations.
It would oppose any kind of selection based upon performance,
whether by intelligence tests, academic records, physical
fitness, or job performance. It would strive to create the
ideal r environment of unlimited resources,
where all were provided all their basic needs without having
to do anything but consume. It would oppose and be repelled
by the K component of the population, seeking to
marginalise it as toxic, privileged, or
exploiters of the real people. It might
even welcome conflict with K warriors of adversaries
to reduce their numbers in otherwise pointless foreign adventures.
And K-troop? Once a society in which they initially
predominated creates sufficient wealth to support a burgeoning
r population, they will find themselves outnumbered and
outvoted, especially once the r wave removes the
firebreaks put in place when K was king to guard
against majoritarian rule by an urban underclass. The
K population will continue to do what they do best:
preserving the institutions and infrastructure which sustain
life, defending the society in the military, building and
running businesses, creating the basic science and technologies
to cope with emerging problems and expand the human potential,
and governing an increasingly complex society made up, with
every generation, of a population, and voters, who are
fundamentally unlike them.
Note that the r/K model completely explains
the “crunchy to soggy” evolution of societies
which has been remarked upon since antiquity. Human
societies always start out, as our genetic heritage predisposes
us to, K-selected. We work to better our condition
and turn our large brains to problem-solving and, before
long, the privation our ancestors endured turns into
a pretty good life and then, eventually, abundance. But
abundance is what selects for the r strategy. Those
who would not have reproduced, or have as many children in
the K days of yore, now have babies-a-poppin' as in
the introduction to
Idiocracy,
and before long, not waiting for genetics to do its inexorable
work, but purely by a shift in incentives, the rs outvote
the Ks and the Ks begin to count the days until
their society runs out of the wealth which can be plundered
from them.
But recall that equation. In our simple bunnies and wolves
model, the resources of the island were static. Nothing the
wolves could do would increase K and permit a larger
rabbit and wolf population. This isn't the case for humans.
K humans dramatically increase the carrying capacity of
their environment by inventing new technologies such as
agriculture, selective breeding of plants and animals,
discovering and exploiting new energy sources such as firewood,
coal, and petroleum, and exploring and settling new territories
and environments which may require their discoveries to render
habitable. The rs don't do these things. And as the
rs predominate and take control, this momentum stalls
and begins to recede. Then the hard times ensue. As
Heinlein said many years ago, “This
is known as bad luck.”
And then the
Gods
of the Copybook Headings will, with terror and slaughter return.
And K-selection will, with them, again assert itself.
Is this a complete model, a Rosetta stone for human behaviour? I
think not: there are a number of things it doesn't explain, and
the shifts in behaviour based upon incentives are much too fast
to account for by genetics. Still, when you look at those eleven
issues I listed so many words ago through the r/K
perspective, you can almost immediately see how each strategy maps
onto one side or the other of each one, and they are consistent with
the policy preferences of “liberals” and
“conservatives”. There is also some rather fuzzy
evidence for genetic differences (in particular the
DRD4-7R
allele of the dopamine receptor and size of the right brain
amygdala) which
appear to correlate with ideology.
Still, if you're on one side of the ideological divide and
confronted with somebody on the other and try to argue
from facts and logical inference, you may end up throwing up
your hands (if not your breakfast) and saying, “They
just don't get it!” Perhaps they don't.
Perhaps they can't. Perhaps there's a difference
between you and them as great as that between rabbits and
wolves, which can't be worked out by predator and prey sitting
down and voting on what to have for dinner. This may not be
a hopeful view of the political prospect in the near future,
but hope is not a strategy and to survive and prosper requires
accepting reality as it is and acting accordingly.
- Carroll, Michael.
Europa's Lost Expedition.
Cham, Switzerland: Springer International, 2017.
ISBN 978-3-319-43158-1.
-
In the epoch in which this story is set the expansion of the
human presence into the solar system was well advanced, with
large settlements on the Moon and Mars, exploitation of the
abundant resources in the main asteroid belt, and research
outposts in exotic environments such as Jupiter's enigmatic moon
Europa, when civilisation on Earth was consumed, as so often
seems to happen when too many primates who evolved to live in
small bands are packed into a limited space, by a
global conflict which the survivors, a decade later, refer to
simply as “The War”, as its horrors and costs
dwarfed all previous human conflicts.
Now, with The War over and recovery underway, scientific work is
resuming, and an international expedition has been launched to
explore the southern hemisphere of Europa, where the icy crust
of the moon is sufficiently thin to provide access to the liquid
water ocean beneath and the complex orbital dynamics of
Jupiter's moons were expected to trigger a once in a decade
eruption of geysers, with cracks in the ice allowing the ocean
to spew into space, providing an opportunity to sample it
“for free”.
Europa is not a hospitable environment for humans. Orbiting
deep within Jupiter's magnetosphere, it is in the heart of the
giant planet's radiation belts, which are sufficiently powerful
to kill an unprotected human within minutes. But the radiation
is not uniform and humans are clever. The main base on Europa,
Taliesen, is located on the face of the moon that points away
from Jupiter, and in the leading hemisphere where radiation is
least intense. On Europa, abundant electrical power is
available simply by laying out cables along the surface, in
which Jupiter's magnetic field induces powerful currents as they
cut it. This power is used to erect a magnetic shield around
the base which protects it from the worst, just as Earth's
magnetic field shields life on its surface. Brief ventures into
the “hot zone” are made possible by shielded rovers
and advanced anti-radiation suits.
The present expedition will not be the first to attempt exploration
of the southern hemisphere. Before the War, an expedition with
similar objectives ended in disaster, with the loss of all members
under circumstances which remain deeply mysterious, and of which
the remaining records, incomplete and garbled by radiation,
provide few clues as to what happened to them. Hadley Nobile,
expedition leader, is not so much concerned with the past
as making the most of this rare opportunity. Her deputy
and long-term collaborator, Gibson van Clive, however, is fascinated
by the mystery and spends hours trying to recover and piece
together the fragmentary records from the lost expedition and
research the backgrounds of its members and the physical
evidence, some of which makes no sense at all. The other
members of the new expedition are known from their scientific
reputations, but not personally to the leaders. Many people
have blanks in their curricula vitae during the
War years, and those who lived through that time are rarely
inclined to probe too deeply.
Once the party arrive at Taliesen and begin preparations for
their trip to the south, a series of “accidents”
befall some members, who are found dead in circumstances which
seem implausible based upon their experience. Down to the bare
minimum team, with a volunteer replacement from the base's
complement, Hadley decides to press on—the geysers wait
for no one.
Thus begins what is basically a murder mystery, explicitly
patterned on Agatha Christie's And Then
There Were None, layered upon the enigmas of the lost
expedition, the backgrounds of those in the current team, and
the biosphere which may thrive in the ocean beneath the ice,
driven by the tides raised by Jupiter and the other moons and
fed by undersea plumes similar to those where some suspect life
began on Earth.
As a mystery, there is little more that can be said without
crossing the line into plot spoilers, so I will refrain from
further description. Worthy of a Christie tale, there are many
twists and turns, and few things are as the seem on the
surface.
As in his previous novel, On the Shores of
Titan's Farthest Sea (December 2016), the author, a
distinguished scientific illustrator and popular science writer,
goes to great lengths to base the exotic locale in which the
story is set upon the best presently-available scientific
knowledge. An appendix, “The Science Behind the
Story”, provides details and source citations for the
setting of the story and the technologies which figure in it.
While the science and technology are plausible extrapolations
from what is presently known, the characters sometimes seem to
behave more in the interests of advancing the plot than as real
people would in such circumstances. If you were the leader or
part of an expedition several members of which had died under
suspicious circumstances at the base camp, would you really be
inclined to depart for a remote field site with spotty
communications along with all of the prime suspects?
- Dutton, Edward.
How to Judge People by What they Look Like.
Oulu, Finland: Thomas Edward Press, 2018.
ISBN 978-1-9770-6797-5.
-
In The Picture of Dorian Gray,
Oscar Wilde wrote,
People say sometimes that Beauty is only superficial.
That may be so. But at least it is not as superficial
as Thought. To me, Beauty is the wonder of wonders.
It is only shallow people who do not judge by
appearances.
From childhood, however, we have been exhorted not to judge
people by their appearances. In
Skin in the Game (August 2019),
Nassim Nicholas Taleb advises choosing the surgeon who
“doesn't
look like a surgeon” because their success is more likely
due to competence than first impressions.
Despite this,
physiognomy,
assessing a person's characteristics from their appearance, is
as natural to humans as breathing, and has been an instinctual
part of human behaviour as old as our species. Thinkers and writers
from Aristotle through the great novelists of the 19th century
believed that an individual's character was reflected in, and
could be inferred from their appearance, and crafted and
described their characters accordingly. Jules Verne would
often spend a paragraph describing the appearance of his
characters and what that implied for their behaviour.
Is physiognomy all nonsense, a pseudoscience like
phrenology,
which purported to predict mental characteristics by measuring
bumps on the skull which were claimed indicate the development
of “cerebral organs” with specific functions? Or,
is there something to it, after all? Humans are a social
species and, as such, have evolved to be exquisitely sensitive
to signals sent by others of their kind, conveyed through subtle
means such as a tone of voice, facial expression, or posture.
Might we also be able to perceive and interpret messages which
indicate properties such as honesty, intelligence, courage,
impulsiveness, criminality, diligence, and more? Such an
ability, if possible, would be advantageous to individuals in
interacting with others and, contributing to success in
reproducing and raising offspring, would be selected for by
evolution.
In this short book (or long essay—the text is just 85
pages), the author examines the evidence and concludes that
there are legitimate correlations between appearance and
behaviour, and that human instincts are picking up genuine
signals which are useful in interacting with others. This
seems perfectly plausible: the development of the human body
and face are controlled by the genetic inheritance of the
individual and modulated through the effects of hormones, and
it is well-established that both genetics and hormones are
correlated with a variety of behavioural traits.
Let's consider a reasonably straightforward example. A
study published in 2008 found a statistically significant
correlation between the width of the face (cheekbone to
cheekbone distance compared to brow to upper lip) and
aggressiveness (measured by the number of penalty
minutes received) among a sample of 90 ice hockey
players. Now, a wide face is also known to correlate
with a high testosterone level in males, and testosterone
correlates with aggressiveness and selfishness. So, it
shouldn't be surprising to find the wide face morphology
correlated with the consequences of high-testosterone
behaviour.
In fact, testosterone and other hormone levels play a
substantial part in many of the correlations between appearance
and behaviour discussed by the author. Many people believe
they can identify, with reasonable reliability, homosexuals
just from their appearance: the term “gaydar”
has come into use for this ability. In 2017, researchers
trained an artificial intelligence program with a set of
photographs of individuals with known sexual orientations
and then tested the program on a set of more than 35,000
images. The program correctly identified the sexual
orientation of men 81% of the time and women with 74%
accuracy.
Of course, appearance goes well beyond factors which are inherited
or determined by hormones. Tattoos, body piercings, and other
irreversible modifications of appearance correlate with low
time preference, which correlates with low intelligence and
the other characteristics of r-selected
lifestyle. Choices of clothing indicate an individual's
self-identification, although fashion trends change rapidly
and differ from region to region, so misinterpretation is a
risk.
The author surveys a wide variety of characteristics including
fat/thin body type, musculature, skin and hair, height,
face shape, breast size in women, baldness and beards in men,
eye spacing, tattoos, hair colour, facial symmetry,
handedness, and finger length ratio, and presents
citations to research, most published recently, supporting
correlations between these aspects of appearance and
behaviour. He cautions that while people may be good at
sensing and interpreting these subtle signals among members
of their own race, there are substantial and consistent
differences between the races, and no inferences can be
drawn from them, nor are members of one race generally
able to read the signals from members of another.
One gets the sense (although less strongly) that this is another
field where advances in genetics and data science are piling
up a mass of evidence which will roll over the stubborn defenders
of the “blank slate” like a truth tsunami. And
again, this is an area where people's instincts, honed by
millennia of evolution, are still relied upon despite the
scorn of “experts”. (So afraid were the authors
of the Wikipedia
page
on physiognomy [retrieved 2019-12-16] of the “computer
gaydar” paper mentioned above that they declined to cite
the
peer reviewed paper in the
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology but
instead linked to a BBC News piece which dismissed
it as “dangerous” and “junk science”.
Go on whistling, folks, as the wave draws near and begins to crest….)
Is the case for physiognomy definitively made? I think not, and
as I suspect the author would agree, there are many aspects of
appearance and a multitude of personality traits, some of which
may be significantly correlated and others not at all. Still,
there is evidence for some linkage, and it appears to be growing
as more work in the area (which is perilous to the careers of
those who dare investigate it) accumulates. The scientific
evidence, summarised here, seems to be, as so often happens,
confirming the instincts honed over hundreds of generations by
the inexorable process of evolution: you can form some
conclusions just by observing people, and this information is
useful in the competition which is life on Earth. Meanwhile,
when choosing programmers for a project team, the one who shows up
whose eyebrows almost meet their hairline, sporting a plastic baseball
cap worn backward with the adjustment strap on the smallest peg,
with a scraggly soybeard, pierced nose, and visible tattoos isn't
likely to be my pick. She's probably a WordPress developer.
- Walton, David.
Three Laws Lethal.
Jersey City, NJ: Pyr, 2019.
ISBN 978-1-63388-560-8.
-
In the near future, autonomous vehicles, “autocars”,
are available from a number of major automobile manufacturers.
The self-driving capability, while not infallible, has been
approved by regulatory authorities after having demonstrated
that it is, on average, safer than the population of human
drivers on the road and not subject to human frailties such as
driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs, while tired, or
distracted by others in the car or electronic gadgets. While
self-driving remains a luxury feature with which a minority of
cars on the road are equipped, regulators are confident that as
it spreads more widely and improves over time, the highway
accident rate will decline.
But placing an algorithm and sensors in command of a vehicle
with a mass of more than a tonne hurtling down the road at 100
km per hour or faster is not just a formidable technical
problem, it is one with serious and unavoidable moral
implications. These come into stark focus when, in an incident
on a highway near Seattle, an autocar swerves to avoid a tree
crashing down on the highway, hitting and killing a motorcyclist
in an adjacent lane of which the car's sensors must have been
aware. The car appears to have made a choice, valuing
the lives of its passengers: a mother and her two children, over
that of the motorcyclist. What really happened, and how the car
decided what to do in that split-second, is opaque, because the
software controlling it was, as all such software, proprietary
and closed to independent inspection and audit by third
parties. It's one thing to acknowledge that self-driving
vehicles are safer, as a whole, than those with humans behind
the wheel, but entirely another to cede to them the moral agency
of life and death on the highway. Should an autocar value the
lives of its passengers over those of others? What if there
were a sole passenger in the car and two on the motorcycle? And
who is liable for the death of the motorcyclist: the auto
manufacturer, the developers of the software, the owner of car,
the driver who switched it into automatic mode, or the
regulators who approved its use on public roads? The case was
headed for court, and all would be watching the precedents it
might establish.
Tyler Daniels and Brandon Kincannon, graduate students in the
computer science department of the University of Pennsylvania,
were convinced they could do better. The key was going beyond
individual vehicles which tried to operate autonomously based
upon what their own sensors could glean from their immediate
environment, toward an architecture where vehicles communicated
with one another and coordinated their activities. This would
allow sharing information over a wider area and be able to avoid
accidents resulting from individual vehicles acting without the
knowledge of the actions of others. Further, they wanted to
re-architect individual ground transportation from a model of
individually-owned and operated vehicles to transportation as a
service, where customers would summon an autocar on demand with
their smartphone, with the vehicle network dispatching the
closest free car to their location. This would dramatically
change the economics of personal transportation. The typical private
car spends twenty-two out of twenty-four hours parked, taking up
a parking space and depreciating as it sits idle. The
transportation service autocar would be in constant service
(except for downtime for maintenance, refuelling, and times of
reduced demand), generating revenue for its operator. An angel
investor believes their story and, most importantly, believes in
them sufficiently to write a check for the initial demonstration
phase of their project, and they set to work.
Their team consists of Tyler and Brandon, plus Abby and Naomi
Sumner, sisters who differed in almost every way: Abby outgoing
and vivacious, with an instinct for public relations and
marketing, and Naomi the super-nerd, verging on being “on
the spectrum”. The big day of the public roll-out of the
technology arrives, and ends in disaster, killing Abby in what
was supposed to be a demonstration of the system's inherent
safety. The disaster puts an end to the venture and the
surviving principals go their separate ways. Tyler signs on as
a consultant and expert witness for the lawyers bringing the
suit on behalf of the motorcyclist killed in Seattle, using the
exposure to advocate for open source software being a
requirement for autonomous vehicles. Brandon uses money
inherited after the death of his father to launch a new venture,
Black Knight, offering transportation as a service initially in
the New York area and then expanding to other cities. Naomi,
whose university experiment in genetic software implemented as
non-player characters (NPCs) in a virtual world was the
foundation of the original venture's software, sees Black Knight
as a way to preserve the world and beings she has created as
they develop and require more and more computing resources.
Characters in the virtual world support themselves and compete
by driving Black Knight cars in the real world, and as
generation follows generation and natural selection works its
wonders, customers and competitors are amazed at how Black
Knight vehicles anticipate the needs of their users and maintain
an unequalled level of efficiency.
Tyler leverages his recognition from the trial into a new
self-driving venture based on open source software called
“Zoom”, which spreads across the U.S. west coast and
eventually comes into competition with Black Knight in the
east. Somehow, Zoom's algorithms, despite being open and having
a large community contributing to their development, never seem
able to equal the service provided by Black Knight, which is so
secretive that even Brandon, the CEO, doesn't know how Naomi's
software does it.
In approaching any kind of optimisation problem such as
scheduling a fleet of vehicles to anticipate and respond to
real-time demand, a key question is choosing the
“objective function”: how the performance of the
system is evaluated based upon the stated goals of its
designers. This is especially crucial when the optimisation is
applied to a system connected to the real world. The parable of
the
“Clippy
Apocalypse”, where an artificial intelligence put in
charge of a paperclip factory and trained to maximise the
production of paperclips escapes into the wild and eventually
converts first its home planet, then the rest of the solar
system, and eventually the entire visible universe into paper
clips. The system worked as designed—but the objective
function was poorly chosen.
Naomi's NPCs literally (or virtually) lived or died based upon
their ability to provide transportation service to Black
Knight's customers, and natural selection, running at the
accelerated pace of the simulation they inhabited, relentlessly
selected them with the objective of improving their service and
expanding Black Knight's market. To the extent that, within
their simulation, they perceived opposition to these goals, they
would act to circumvent it—whatever it takes.
This sets the stage for one of the more imaginative tales of how
artificial general intelligence might arrive through the back
door: not designed in a laboratory but emerging through the
process of evolution in a complex system subjected to real-world
constraints and able to operate in the real world. The moral
dimensions of this go well beyond the trolley
problem often cited in connection with autonomous vehicles,
dealing with questions of whether artificial intelligences we
create for our own purposes are tools, servants, or slaves, and
what happens when their purposes diverge from those for which we
created them.
This is a techno-thriller, with plenty of action in the
conclusion of the story, but also a cerebral exploration of the
moral questions which something as seemingly straightforward and
beneficial as autonomous vehicles may pose in the future.
- Taloni, John.
The Compleat Martian Invasion.
Seattle: Amazon Digital Services, 2016.
ASIN B01HLTZ7MS.
-
A number of years have elapsed since the Martian Invasion
chronicled by H.G. Wells in
The War of
the Worlds. The damage inflicted on the Earth was
severe, and the protracted process of recovery, begun in the
British Empire in the last years of Queen Victoria's reign, now
continues under Queen Louise, Victoria's sixth child and eldest
surviving heir after the catastrophe of the invasion. Just as
Earth is beginning to return to normalcy, another crisis has
emerged. John Bedford, who had retreated into an opium haze
after the horrors of his last expedition, is summoned to Windsor
Castle where Queen Louise shows him a photograph. “Those
are puffs of gas on the Martian surface. The Martians are
coming again, Mr. Bedford. And in far greater numbers.”
Defeated the last time only due to their vulnerability to
Earth's microbes, there is every reason to expect that this time
the Martians will have taken precautions against that threat to
their plans for conquest.
Earth's only hope to thwart the invasion before it reaches the
surface and unleashes further devastation on its inhabitants is
deploying weapons on platforms employing the anti-gravity
material Cavorite, but the secret of manufacturing it rests with
its creator, Cavor, who has been taken prisoner by the ant-like
Selenites in the expedition from which Mr Bedford narrowly
escaped, as chronicled in Mr Wells's
The
First Men in the Moon. Now, Bedford must embark on a perilous
attempt to recover the Cavorite sphere lost at the end of his
last adventure and then join an expedition to the Moon to rescue
Cavor from the caves of the Selenites.
Meanwhile, on Barsoom (Mars),
John Carter
and Deja Thoris find
their beloved city of Helium threatened by the Khondanes, whose
deadly tripods wreaked so much havoc on Earth not long ago and
are now turning their envious eyes back to the plunder that
eluded them on the last attempt.
Queen Louise must assemble an international alliance, calling on
all of her crowned relatives: Czar Nicholas, Kaiser Wilhelm, and
even those troublesome republican Americans, plus all the
resources they can summon—the inventions of the Serbian,
Tesla, the research of Maria Skłowdowska and her young
Swiss assistant Albert, discovered toiling away in the patent
office, the secrets recovered from Captain Nemo's island, and
the mysterious interventions of the
Time
Traveller, who flickers in and out of existence at various
moments, pursuing his own inscrutable agenda. As the conflict
approaches and battle is joined, an interplanetary effort is
required to save Earth from calamity.
As you might expect from this description, this is a
rollicking good romp replete with references and tips of
the hat to the classics of science fiction and their
characters. What seems like a straightforward tale of
battle and heroism takes a turn at the very end into
the inspiring, with a glimpse of how different human
history might have been.
At present, only a Kindle edition is
available, which is free for Kindle Unlimited subscribers.
- Page, Joseph T., II.
Vandenberg Air Force Base.
Charleston, SC: Arcadia Publishing, 2014.
ISBN 978-1-4671-3209-1.
-
Prior to World War II, the sleepy rural part of the
southern California coast between Santa Barbara
and San Luis Obispo was best known as the location
where, in September 1923, despite a lighthouse having
been in operation at Arguello Point since 1901, the
U.S. Navy suffered its worst peacetime disaster, when
seven destroyers, travelling at 20 knots,
ran
aground at Honda Point, resulting in the loss of
all seven ships and the deaths of 23 crewmembers. In the
1930s, following additional wrecks in the area, a
lifeboat station was established in conjunction
with the lighthouse.
During World War II, the Army acquired 92,000 acres
(372 km²) in the area for a training base which
was called Camp Cooke, after a cavalry general who
served in the Civil War, in wars with Indian tribes, and
in the Mexican-American War. The camp was used for
training Army troops in a variety of weapons and in
tank maneuvers. After the end of the war, the base was
closed and placed on inactive status, but was re-opened
after the outbreak of war in Korea to train tank crews.
It was once again mothballed in 1953, and remained
inactive until 1957, when 64,000 acres were transferred
to the U.S. Air Force to establish a missile base on
the West Coast, initially called Cooke Air Force Base,
intended to train missile crews and also serve as the
U.S.'s first operational intercontinental ballistic
missile (ICBM) site. On October 4th, 1958, the base was
renamed Vandenberg Air Force Base in honour of the late
General Hoyt
Vandenberg, former Air Force Chief of Staff and
Director of Central Intelligence.
On December 15, 1958, a Thor intermediate range ballistic
missile was launched from the new base, the first of hundreds of
launches which would follow and continue up to the present day.
Starting in September 1959, three Atlas ICBMs armed with nuclear
warheads were deployed on open launch pads at Vandenberg, the
first U.S. intercontinental ballistic missiles to go on alert.
The Atlas missiles remained part of the U.S. nuclear force until
their retirement in May 1964.
With the advent of Earth satellites, Vandenberg became a key
part of the U.S. military and civil space infrastructure.
Launches from Cape Canaveral in Florida are restricted to a
corridor directed eastward over the Atlantic ocean. While this
is fine for satellites bound for equatorial orbits, such as the
geostationary orbits used by many communication satellites, a
launch into polar orbit, preferred by military reconnaissance
satellites and Earth resources satellites because it allows them
to overfly and image locations anywhere on Earth, would result
in the rockets used to launch them dropping spent stages on
land, which would vex taxpayers to the north and hotheated Latin
neighbours to the south.
Vandenberg Air Force Base, however, situated on a point
extending from the California coast, had nothing to the
south but open ocean all the way to Antarctica. Launching
southward, satellites could be placed into polar or
Sun
synchronous orbits without disturbing anybody but the
fishes. Vandenberg thus became the prime launch site
for U.S. reconnaissance satellites which, in the early
days when satellites were short-lived and returned film
to the Earth, required a large number of launches. The
Corona
spy satellites alone accounted for
144 launches from Vandenberg between 1959 and 1972.
With plans in the 1970s to replace all U.S. expendable launchers
with the Space Shuttle, facilities were built at Vandenberg
(Space
Launch Complex 6) to process and launch the Shuttle, using a
very different architecture than was employed in Florida. The
Shuttle stack would be assembled on the launch pad, protected by
a movable building that would retract prior to launch. The
launch control centre was located just 365 metres from the
launch pad (as opposed to 4.8 km away at the Kennedy Space
Center in Florida), so the plan in case of a catastrophic launch
accident on the pad essentially seemed to be “hope that
never happens”. In any case, after spending more than
US$4 billion on the facilities, after the Challenger
disaster in 1986, plans for Shuttle launches from Vandenberg
were abandoned, and the facility was mothballed until being
adapted, years later, to launch other rockets.
This book, part of the “Images of America” series,
is a collection of photographs (all black and white) covering
all aspects of the history of the site from before World War II
to the present day. Introductory text for each chapter and
detailed captions describe the items shown and their
significance to the base's history. The production quality is
excellent, and I noted only one factual error in the text (the
names of crew of Gemini 5). For a book of just 128 pages, the
paperback is very expensive (US$22 at this writing). The
Kindle edition is still pricey (US$13
list price), but may be read for free by Kindle Unlimited
subscribers.
- Andrew, Christopher and Vasili Mitrokhin.
The Sword and the Shield.
New York: Basic Books, 1999.
ISBN 978-0-465-00312-9.
-
Vasili Mitrokhin joined the Soviet intelligence service as a
foreign intelligence officer in 1948, at a time when the MGB
(later to become the KGB) and the GRU were unified into a single
service called the Committee of Information. By the time he was
sent to his first posting abroad in 1952, the two services had
split and Mitrokhin stayed with the MGB. Mitrokhin's career
began in the paranoia of the final days of Stalin's regime, when
foreign intelligence officers were sent on wild goose chases
hunting down imagined Trotskyist and Zionist conspirators
plotting against the regime. He later survived the turbulence
after the death of Stalin and the execution of MGB head Lavrenti
Beria, and the consolidation of power under his successors.
During the Khrushchev years, Mitrokhin became disenchanted
with the regime, considering Khrushchev an uncultured
barbarian whose banning of avant garde writers betrayed
the tradition of Russian literature. He began to entertain
dissident thoughts, not hoping for an overthrow of the Soviet
regime but rather its reform by a new generation of leaders
untainted by the legacy of Stalin. These thoughts were
reinforced by the crushing of the reform-minded regime
in Czechoslovakia in 1968 and his own observation of how
his service, now called the KGB, manipulated the Soviet
justice system to suppress dissent within the Soviet
Union. He began to covertly listen to Western broadcasts
and read samizdat publications by Soviet dissidents.
In 1972, the First Chief Directorate (FCD: foreign intelligence)
moved from the cramped KGB headquarters in the Lubyanka
in central Moscow to a new building near the ring road.
Mitrokhin had sole responsibility for checking, inventorying,
and transferring the entire archives, around 300,000 documents,
of the FCD for transfer to the new building. These files
documented the operations of the KGB and its predecessors
dating back to 1918, and included the most secret records,
those of Directorate S, which ran “illegals”:
secret agents operating abroad under false identities.
Probably no other individual ever read as many
of the KGB's most secret archives as Mitrokhin. Appalled
by much of the material he reviewed, he covertly began to
make his own notes of the details. He started by committing
key items to memory and then transcribing them every evening
at home, but later made covert notes on scraps of paper
which he smuggled out of KGB offices in his shoes.
Each week-end he would take the notes to his dacha outside
Moscow, type them up, and hide them in a series of locations
which became increasingly elaborate as their volume grew.
Mitrokhin would continue to review, make notes, and add them
to his hidden archive for the next twelve years until his
retirement from the KGB in 1984. After Mikhail Gorbachev
became party leader in 1985 and called for more openness
(glasnost), Mitrokhin,
shaken by what he had seen in the files regarding Soviet
actions in Afghanistan, began to think of ways he might
spirit his files out of the Soviet Union and publish
them in the West.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Mitrokhin tested the new
freedom of movement by visiting the capital of one of the
now-independent Baltic states, carrying a sample of the material
from his archive concealed in his luggage. He crossed the
border with no problems and walked in to the British embassy to
make a deal. After several more trips, interviews with British
Secret Intelligence Service (SIS) officers, and providing more
sample material, the British agreed to arrange the exfiltration
of Mitrokhin, his entire family, and the entire
archive—six cases of notes. He was debriefed at a series
of safe houses in Britain and began several years of work typing
handwritten notes, arranging the documents, and answering
questions from the SIS, all in complete secrecy. In 1995, he
arranged a meeting with Christopher Andrew, co-author of the
present book, to prepare a history of KGB foreign intelligence
as documented in the archive.
Mitrokhin's exfiltration (I'm not sure one can call it a
“defection”, since the country whose information he
disclosed ceased to exist before he contacted the British) and
delivery of the archive is one of the most stunning intelligence
coups of all time, and the material he delivered will be an
essential primary source for historians of the twentieth
century. This is not just a whistle-blower disclosing
operations of limited scope over a short period of time, but an
authoritative summary of the entire history of the foreign
intelligence and covert operations of the Soviet Union from its
inception until the time it began to unravel in the mid-1980s.
Mitrokhin's documents name names; identify agents, both
Soviet and recruits in other countries, by codename; describe
secret operations, including assassinations, subversion,
“influence operations” planting propaganda in
adversary media and corrupting journalists and politicians,
providing weapons to insurgents, hiding caches of weapons and
demolition materials in Western countries to support special
forces in case of war; and trace the internal politics and conflicts
within the KGB and its predecessors and with the Party and
rivals, particularly military intelligence (the GRU).
Any doubts about the degree of penetration of Western
governments by Soviet intelligence agents are laid to rest by
the exhaustive documentation here. During the 1930s and
throughout World War II, the Soviet Union had highly-placed
agents throughout the British and American governments, military,
diplomatic and intelligence communities, and science and
technology projects. At the same time, these supposed allies had
essentially zero visibility into the Soviet Union: neither
the American OSS nor the British SIS had a single agent in
Moscow.
And yet, despite success in infiltrating other countries
and recruiting agents within them (particularly prior to
the end of World War II, when many agents, such as the
“Magnificent
Five” [Donald Maclean, Kim Philby,
John Cairncross, Guy Burgess, and Anthony Blunt] in
Britain, were motivated by idealistic admiration for the
Soviet project, as opposed to later, when sources tended
to be in it for the money), exploitation of this vast
trove of purloined secret information was uneven and
often ineffective. Although it reached its apogee during
the Stalin years, paranoia and intrigue are as Russian as borscht,
and compromised the interpretation and use of intelligence
throughout the history of the Soviet Union. Despite having
loyal spies in high places in governments around the world,
whenever an agent provided information which seemed “too
good” or conflicted with the preconceived notions of
KGB senior officials or Party leaders, it was likely to be
dismissed as disinformation, often suspected to have been planted
by British counterintelligence, to which the Soviets
attributed almost supernatural powers, or that their agents had
been turned and were feeding false information to the Centre.
This was particularly evident during the period prior to the
Nazi attack on the Soviet Union in 1941. KGB archives record
more than a hundred warnings of preparations for the attack having
been forwarded to Stalin between January and June 1941, all
of which were dismissed as disinformation or erroneous due to
Stalin's idée fixe that
Germany would not attack because it was too dependent on raw
materials supplied by the Soviet Union and would not
risk a two front war while Britain remained undefeated.
Further, throughout the entire history of the Soviet Union,
the KGB was hesitant to report intelligence which
contradicted the beliefs of its masters in the Politburo
or documented the failures of their policies and initiatives.
In 1985, shortly after coming to power, Gorbachev lectured
KGB leaders “on the impermissibility of distortions of
the factual state of affairs in messages and informational
reports sent to the Central Committee of the CPSU and other
ruling bodies.”
Another manifestation of paranoia was deep suspicion of
those who had spent time in the West. This meant that often
the most effective agents who had worked undercover in the
West for many years found their reports ignored due to fears
that they had “gone native” or been doubled by
Western counterintelligence. Spending too much time on
assignment in the West was not conducive to advancement
within the KGB, which resulted in the service's senior
leadership having little direct experience with the West and
being prone to fantastic misconceptions about the institutions
and personalities of the adversary. This led to delusional
schemes such as the idea of recruiting stalwart anticommunist
senior figures such as Zbigniew Brzezinski as KGB agents.
This is a massive compilation of data: 736 pages in the
paperback edition, including almost 100 pages of
detailed end notes and source citations. I would be less
than candid if I gave the impression that this reads like
a spy thriller: it is nothing of the sort. Although such
information would have been of immense value during the
Cold War, long lists of the handlers who worked with
undercover agents in the West, recitations of codenames
for individuals, and exhaustive descriptions of now
largely forgotten episodes such as the KGB's campaign
against “Eurocommunism” in the 1970s and 1980s,
which it was feared would thwart Moscow's control over
communist parties in Western Europe, make for heavy
going for the reader.
The KGB's operations in the West were far from flawless.
For decades, the Communist Party of the United States
(CPUSA) received substantial subsidies from the KGB
despite consistently promising great breakthroughs and
delivering nothing. Between the 1950s and 1975, KGB
money was funneled to the CPUSA through two undercover
agents, brothers named Morris and Jack Childs,
delivering cash often exceeding a million dollars a
year. Both brothers were awarded the Order of the Red
Banner in 1975 for their work, with Morris receiving his
from Leonid Brezhnev in person. Unbeknownst to the KGB,
both of the Childs brothers had been working for, and
receiving salaries from, the FBI since the early 1950s,
and reporting where the money came from and went—well,
not the five percent they embezzled before passing it on.
In the 1980s, the KGB increased the CPUSA's subsidy to
two million dollars a year, despite the party's never
having more than 15,000 members (some of whom, no
doubt, were FBI agents).
A second doorstop of a book (736 pages) based upon the Mitrokhin
archive,
The World Was Going our Way,
published in 2005, details the KGB's operations in the Third
World during the Cold War. U.S. diplomats who regarded the globe
and saw communist subversion almost everywhere were accurately
reporting the situation on the ground, as the KGB's own files
reveal.
The Kindle edition is free for Kindle
Unlimited subscribers.