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Oh Yeah!

For this is what's really happening. Progress is made in a series of waves. Each starts with a giddy period of exponential growth. That's when it's fun, when everybody's jumping in, working 24 hours a day, losing money hand over fist, and having a wonderful time.

As the curve really begins to soar, it starts having an impact on the established, mature technologies that went before. This is a general-purpose graph; it's my worldview on a single slide. You can read it as transistors replacing vacuum tubes and then being supplanted by integrated circuits, or of mainframes, minicomputers, and personal computers, of turnkey mainframe CAD companies, workstation based CAD, and mass market desktop CAD software, or for that matter of species diversification and extinction in an ecosystem.

It doesn't matter. It's all evolution in action.

Editor: John Walker