RetroPsychoKinesis Experiment Summary

Last updated: Monday 2014 October 20 4:01 UTC

This report is updated daily


Overall Summary

Total experiments: 374192
Number of subjects: 33907
Total tries: 383172608
Total hits: 191587025
Overall z: 0.0737 standard deviations

"Subjects" is the number of different E-mail addresses or "handles" in the log file; there is no assurance a given individual may not have entered a number of different identities, either intentionally or by accident. The number of experiments includes only "for the record" experiments, not those designated in advance by the subject as "practice". Since each experiment involves 1024 bits, the total number of "Tries" in the next line is 3741921024, or 383172608. Examination of the logged bit sequences sent to the subjects shows that 191587025 of the total of 383172608 bits were "Hits"--they agree with the subject's previously-chosen goal. There were, then, 721 more bits among a total of 383172608 consistent with the subjects' intent to bias the generator. This is equivalent to changing one bit in every 531446 in the direction desired by the subject. The measured bias amounts to 0.0737 standard deviations.

Hit Histogram

The following chart summarises the results of all for-the-record experiments (excluding runs designated in advance as "practice" runs by the subject, which are logged for completeness, but do not figure in the statistical analysis) performed since the RPKP experiments were begun in January of 1997.

RPKP Experiment Hit Histogram vs. Expectation

The blue curve gives the normal distribution for a large number of trials of 1024 events with probability 0.5. (For a number of trials as large as 1024, the binomial and normal distributions are equal on the scale of this plot.) The red boxes show the actual number of experimental runs which resulted in the given number of hits. A "hit" is defined as the number of bits in the 1024 bit stream which agreed with the subject's previously chosen one-or-zero goal.

Cumulative Deviation from Expectation

Any experiment involving a random data source can be expected to, in the absence of perturbing influences, follow a random walk around the most probable value. As the number of experiments increases, overall divergences should decrease. When examining the results of such experiments, it's important to satisfy yourself that any non-chance effect you observe doesn't result from the experimenter choosing to show you results at a peak or trough of a series which is swinging to both sides of the chance expectation with a mean value equal to chance. The following is a deviation plot of the all 374192 RPKP experiments to date; it shows the absolute divergence of the experimental results in the direction of bias preselected by the subject compared to that expected by chance, and the divergence in terms of standard deviations for the cumulative number of trials for a probability of 0.5 on each trial.

RPKP Experiment Cumulative Deviation from Expectation

Cumulative Deviation by Intent from Expectation

Another way to evaluate the results of the experiments is to examine how frequently the result of an experiment (excess of one or zero bits) agrees with the subject's pre-declared goal, regardless of the magnitude of the deviation from the mean value. If the subject has chosen a goal corresponding to an excess of one bits, the experiment will be scored as a success if there is any excess of one bits at all (513 one bits out of 1024 is just as much a success as 527 one bits and, conversely, 511 one bits is as much a failure as a result of 497 one bits). If the subject chooses a goal corresponding to an excess of zero bits, the sense of the comparison is inverted: any excess of zero bits is deemed a success. To preserve symmetry, results with an equal number of zero and one bits (512 each in an experiment of 1024 bits) are considered neutral and do not change the cumulative result. Here we plot the cumulative deviation by intent as z: the number of standard deviations by which it differs from the expectation value of zero.

RPKP Experiment Cumulative Intent Deviation from Expectation

Runs by Subjects Histogram

The following table shows the number of experiments run by various subjects, and the cumulative results and standard deviation for each number of experiments. Individual subjects who have made a large number of runs appear show up at the bottom of the the table, and the results they obtained can be compared.

Experiments
Run
Number of
Subjects
Hits/Tries  z 
1 13009 6652151/13321216 4.6342
2 5888 6025889/12058624 1.9715
3 3720 5711997/11427840 1.1377
4 2211 4525347/9056256 1.8482
5 1575 4033359/8064000 0.9571
6 1108 3404832/6807552 0.8095
7 803 2876289/5755904 1.3863
8 610 2499208/4997120 0.5798
9 519 2391626/4783104 0.0677
10 467 2390242/4782080 0.7298
11 350 1970536/3942400 0.6688
12 306 1880219/3760128 0.1599
13 268 1783409/3567616 0.4225
14 239 1712636/3426304 0.5575
15 215 1650930/3302400 0.2972
16 173 1418463/2834432 1.4814
17 137 1193094/2384896 0.8366
18 125 1151799/2304000 0.2648
19 123 1196189/2393088 0.4590
20 122 1250062/2498560 0.9894
21 103 1107505/2214912 0.0658
22 84 945754/1892352 0.6135
23 71 835989/1672192 0.1655
24 63 774796/1548288 1.0480
25 69 883059/1766400 0.2122
26 62 826459/1650688 1.7357
27 64 884985/1769472 0.3744
28 46 660016/1318912 0.9752
29 48 711454/1425408 2.0940
30 50 766844/1536000 1.8655
31 42 667459/1333248 1.4463
32 46 754780/1507328 1.8180
33 43 727744/1453056 2.0175
34 38 661457/1323008 0.0817
35 28 501894/1003520 0.2675
36 37 682992/1363968 1.7262
37 33 623359/1250304 3.2070
38 38 738946/1478656 0.6283
39 25 498990/998400 0.4203
40 36 737614/1474560 0.5501
41 27 566916/1133568 0.2480
42 22 472956/946176 0.2714
43 21 462455/924672 0.2475
44 20 450857/901120 0.6257
45 15 344963/691200 1.5324
46 18 423877/847872 0.1281
47 19 457694/914432 0.9997
48 14 343822/688128 0.5835
49 13 326366/652288 0.5497
50 15 383928/768000 0.1643
51 24 626488/1253376 0.3573
52 19 506954/1011712 2.1833
53 13 352709/705536 0.1405
54 7 193741/387072 0.6590
55 18 507849/1013760 1.9248
56 15 430585/860160 1.0890
57 10 292299/583680 1.2016
58 12 356174/712704 0.4217
59 10 302080/604160 0.0000
60 16 491659/983040 0.2804
61 10 312380/624640 0.1518
62 13 412557/825344 0.2532
63 15 484419/967680 1.1772
64 9 294277/589824 1.6536
65 9 299868/599040 0.8993
66 10 337693/675840 0.5522
67 14 480235/960512 0.0429
68 6 209228/417792 1.0273
69 7 247437/494592 0.4010
70 9 322748/645120 0.4681
71 9 327252/654336 0.2077
72 8 295314/589824 1.0469
73 3 112077/224256 0.2154
74 9 340337/681984 1.5863
75 6 230329/460800 0.2092
76 7 272289/544768 0.2574
77 5 196887/394240 0.7422
78 7 279520/559104 0.0856
79 4 162332/323584 1.8986
80 5 204953/409600 0.4781
81 5 207292/414720 0.2112
82 6 251709/503808 0.5495
83 2 84897/169984 0.4608
84 2 86078/172032 0.2990
85 2 87098/174080 0.2780
86 5 220155/440320 0.0151
87 2 88863/178176 1.0661
88 7 315248/630784 0.3626
89 2 91526/182272 1.8270
90 2 91843/184320 1.4767
91 3 139739/279552 0.1400
92 7 329515/659456 0.5246
93 3 143124/285696 1.0327
94 1 48134/96256 0.0387
95 5 242841/486400 1.0295
96 2 98517/196608 0.9607
97 3 149407/297984 1.5205
98 2 100457/200704 0.4688
99 5 253044/506880 1.1124
100 7 358282/716800 0.2787
101 6 310369/620544 0.2463
102 3 157014/313344 1.2219
103 2 105203/210944 1.1714
104 5 266194/532480 0.1261
106 3 162726/325632 0.3154
107 1 54683/109568 0.6103
108 5 276757/552960 0.7450
109 1 55742/111616 0.3951
110 2 112340/225280 1.2641
111 3 170848/340992 1.2056
112 4 229540/458752 0.4843
113 2 115537/231424 0.7276
114 7 409134/817152 1.2346
115 4 236038/471040 1.5095
116 7 415998/831488 0.5571
117 2 120024/239616 0.8825
118 4 241043/483328 1.7865
119 3 183021/365568 0.7840
120 5 307260/614400 0.1531
121 2 124061/247808 0.6308
122 4 249676/499712 0.5093
123 2 125473/251904 1.9087
124 2 127192/253952 0.8573
125 1 64171/128000 0.9559
126 2 128874/258048 0.5906
127 1 64968/130048 0.3106
128 1 65799/131072 1.4529
129 3 198940/396288 2.5289
130 5 332885/665600 0.2084
132 2 135184/270336 0.0615
133 1 67967/136192 0.6991
134 2 137337/274432 0.4620
135 3 207396/414720 0.1118
136 2 139092/278528 0.6518
137 1 69880/140288 1.4097
138 2 141170/282624 0.5342
139 1 71128/142336 0.2120
140 5 358313/716800 0.2055
141 2 144591/288768 0.7704
142 1 72469/145408 1.2325
143 2 146331/292864 0.3733
144 2 147321/294912 0.4972
145 4 296793/593920 0.4334
146 2 149586/299008 0.2999
148 2 151121/303104 1.5657
149 3 228586/457728 0.8218
150 3 230294/460800 0.3123
151 2 154761/309248 0.4927
153 2 156960/313344 1.0290
154 1 79013/157696 0.8310
155 3 238627/476160 1.5854
156 1 80234/159744 1.8114
157 1 80384/160768 0.0000
158 2 161938/323584 0.5133
159 3 244373/488448 0.4264
160 1 82202/163840 1.3934
161 3 247386/494592 0.2559
162 2 166230/331776 1.1875
164 2 167776/335872 0.5522
165 2 168697/337920 0.9049
166 2 170189/339968 0.7032
170 1 86917/174080 0.5896
171 2 174975/350208 0.4360
172 2 175786/352256 1.1525
174 3 268004/534528 2.0243
175 4 358154/716800 0.5811
176 4 361140/720896 1.6300
177 1 90903/181248 1.3107
180 1 92118/184320 0.1957
182 1 93122/186368 0.2872
183 2 187564/374784 0.5619
185 1 94716/189440 0.0184
186 1 95036/190464 0.8982
187 1 95583/191488 0.7358
189 4 387100/774144 0.0636
190 1 97207/194560 0.3310
191 1 97737/195584 0.2487
192 2 196641/393216 0.1053
195 1 99196/199680 2.8824
197 1 100895/201728 0.1380
200 2 204715/409600 0.2656
201 2 205561/411648 0.8198
202 1 103444/206848 0.0879
204 2 209659/417792 2.3609
205 1 105150/209920 0.8294
208 2 213287/425984 0.9040
210 1 107717/215040 0.8496
212 3 325786/651264 0.3817
215 1 109939/220160 0.6010
217 1 111148/222208 0.1867
219 1 112187/224256 0.2492
224 1 114861/229376 0.7224
225 1 115213/230400 0.0542
227 2 232680/464896 0.6805
229 1 117253/234496 0.0207
232 1 118732/237568 0.2134
235 2 240535/481280 0.3027
236 1 120846/241664 0.0570
238 1 121802/243712 0.2188
240 1 122412/245760 1.8881
241 1 123381/246784 0.0443
245 1 125995/250880 2.2161
247 1 126313/252928 0.6005
250 1 128051/256000 0.2016
251 1 128793/257024 1.1085
252 2 258266/516096 0.6069
259 2 265473/530432 0.7057
268 1 137048/274432 0.6414
272 1 139725/278528 1.7470
278 1 142232/284672 0.3898
280 1 143009/286720 1.3110
282 1 144776/288768 1.4590
284 1 145732/290816 1.2016
286 1 146644/292864 0.7835
291 1 149196/297984 0.7474
292 1 150030/299008 1.9239
293 1 150456/300032 1.6066
296 1 151540/303104 0.0436
305 1 155684/312320 1.7035
306 1 155855/313344 2.9190
307 1 156831/314368 1.2592
313 1 160538/320512 0.9962
315 1 160439/322560 2.9616
321 1 164988/328704 2.2186
330 1 169191/337920 0.7948
332 1 169748/339968 0.8095
342 1 175610/350208 1.7101
343 1 175927/351232 1.0495
346 1 177270/354304 0.3965
348 1 178012/356352 0.5495
349 1 178566/357376 0.4082
355 1 182014/363520 0.8426
357 1 182946/365568 0.5359
368 1 188552/376832 0.4431
372 1 190522/380928 0.1879
374 1 191195/382976 0.9469
375 1 192355/384000 1.1458
381 1 195222/390144 0.4803
382 1 195449/391168 0.4317
383 1 196677/392192 1.8555
401 2 411195/821248 1.2602
404 1 206995/413696 0.4571
410 1 209363/419840 1.7193
414 1 211467/423936 1.5389
416 1 213097/425984 0.3218
423 1 216977/433152 1.2186
432 1 221882/442368 2.0989
435 1 222783/445440 0.1888
438 1 223835/448512 1.2573
440 1 225551/450560 0.8075
445 1 228040/455680 0.5926
449 1 230059/459776 0.5044
450 1 230262/460800 0.4066
456 1 233269/466944 0.5941
465 1 238314/476160 0.6782
477 1 244153/488448 0.2032
483 1 248038/494592 2.1101
486 1 248975/497664 0.4054
500 2 512273/1024000 0.5396
504 1 258187/516096 0.3870
521 1 267573/533504 2.2480
525 1 269535/537600 2.0049
527 1 270066/539648 0.6589
531 1 271399/543744 1.2829
539 1 275737/551936 0.6219
555 1 283962/568320 0.5253
559 1 286180/572416 0.0740
579 1 296000/592896 1.1636
618 1 316245/632832 0.4299
622 1 319329/636928 2.1677
630 1 322877/645120 0.7893
657 1 337081/672768 1.6995
659 1 337721/674816 0.7620
666 1 341240/681984 0.6006
670 1 343489/686080 1.0841
698 1 357541/714752 0.3903
708 1 362383/724992 0.2654
724 1 371383/741376 1.6143
748 1 383207/765952 0.5279
765 1 390911/783360 1.7377
787 1 402579/805888 0.8132
792 1 405199/811008 0.6774
847 1 434412/867328 1.6063
864 1 442760/884736 0.8335
902 1 461910/923648 0.1790
973 1 498360/996352 0.3687
992 1 507591/1015808 0.6211
1005 1 514573/1029120 0.0256
1024 1 523462/1048576 1.6133
1027 1 525719/1051648 0.2048
1101 1 563674/1127424 0.0716
1229 1 628754/1258496 0.8807
1241 1 635247/1270784 0.2573
1261 1 645933/1291264 0.5298
1349 1 690715/1381376 0.0459
1360 1 695800/1392640 0.8813
1407 1 719699/1440768 1.1414
1458 1 746586/1492992 0.1473
1481 1 758020/1516544 0.4093
1652 1 846016/1691648 0.2952
1742 1 891790/1783808 0.1707
1769 1 906121/1811456 0.5840
1947 1 996742/1993728 0.1728
2000 1 1024947/2048000 1.3235
2120 1 1084830/2170880 0.8280
2198 1 1126814/2250752 1.9170
2257 1 1156265/2311168 0.8959
2296 1 1174949/2351104 0.7865
2591 1 1327380/2653184 0.9675
4210 1 2154581/4311040 0.9045
4223 1 2161820/4324352 0.3424
4261 1 2181516/4363264 0.1111
4601 1 2355712/4711424 0.0000
4731 1 2422549/4844544 0.2517
5250 1 2689581/5376000 1.3637
5724 1 2929525/5861376 0.9607
6371 1 3259087/6523904 2.2434
6565 1 3361825/6722560 0.4204
8115 1 4154583/8309760 0.2061
8322 1 4261389/8521728 0.3597
12950 1 6631971/13260800 0.8628
16822 1 8612008/17225728 0.4125

Results by Visual Feedback Program

Feedback Program Runs Hits/Tries  z 
bellcurve 187654 96078281/192157696 0.0818
clockface 80622 41277684/82556928 0.1717
experiment 982 502147/1005568 1.2705
pendulum 104934 53728913/107452416 0.5219
The table at the right shows results obtained by all subjects, sorted by the visual feedback program they selected.

Results by Goal

Goal Runs Hits/Tries  z 
0 86794 44439631/88877056 0.2340
1 287392 147144377/294289408 0.0381
Each visual feedback program allows the user to choose a goal which corresponds to either an excess of zero or one bits in the data stream. The following table gives results by goal, indicating how many times each goal was chosen. The default goal is an excess of one bits.

Control Run Report

Custom Log Report

Experiments Table of Contents

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