RetroPsychoKinesis Experiment Summary

Last updated: Saturday 2015 August 29 4:01 UTC

This report is updated daily


Overall Summary

Total experiments: 379958
Number of subjects: 34099
Total tries: 389076992
Total hits: 194540178
Overall z: 0.1705 standard deviations

"Subjects" is the number of different E-mail addresses or "handles" in the log file; there is no assurance a given individual may not have entered a number of different identities, either intentionally or by accident. The number of experiments includes only "for the record" experiments, not those designated in advance by the subject as "practice". Since each experiment involves 1024 bits, the total number of "Tries" in the next line is 3799581024, or 389076992. Examination of the logged bit sequences sent to the subjects shows that 194540178 of the total of 389076992 bits were "Hits"--they agree with the subject's previously-chosen goal. There were, then, 1682 more bits among a total of 389076992 consistent with the subjects' intent to bias the generator. This is equivalent to changing one bit in every 231318 in the direction desired by the subject. The measured bias amounts to 0.1705 standard deviations.

Hit Histogram

The following chart summarises the results of all for-the-record experiments (excluding runs designated in advance as "practice" runs by the subject, which are logged for completeness, but do not figure in the statistical analysis) performed since the RPKP experiments were begun in January of 1997.

RPKP Experiment Hit Histogram vs. Expectation

The blue curve gives the normal distribution for a large number of trials of 1024 events with probability 0.5. (For a number of trials as large as 1024, the binomial and normal distributions are equal on the scale of this plot.) The red boxes show the actual number of experimental runs which resulted in the given number of hits. A "hit" is defined as the number of bits in the 1024 bit stream which agreed with the subject's previously chosen one-or-zero goal.

Cumulative Deviation from Expectation

Any experiment involving a random data source can be expected to, in the absence of perturbing influences, follow a random walk around the most probable value. As the number of experiments increases, overall divergences should decrease. When examining the results of such experiments, it's important to satisfy yourself that any non-chance effect you observe doesn't result from the experimenter choosing to show you results at a peak or trough of a series which is swinging to both sides of the chance expectation with a mean value equal to chance. The following is a deviation plot of the all 379958 RPKP experiments to date; it shows the absolute divergence of the experimental results in the direction of bias preselected by the subject compared to that expected by chance, and the divergence in terms of standard deviations for the cumulative number of trials for a probability of 0.5 on each trial.

RPKP Experiment Cumulative Deviation from Expectation

Cumulative Deviation by Intent from Expectation

Another way to evaluate the results of the experiments is to examine how frequently the result of an experiment (excess of one or zero bits) agrees with the subject's pre-declared goal, regardless of the magnitude of the deviation from the mean value. If the subject has chosen a goal corresponding to an excess of one bits, the experiment will be scored as a success if there is any excess of one bits at all (513 one bits out of 1024 is just as much a success as 527 one bits and, conversely, 511 one bits is as much a failure as a result of 497 one bits). If the subject chooses a goal corresponding to an excess of zero bits, the sense of the comparison is inverted: any excess of zero bits is deemed a success. To preserve symmetry, results with an equal number of zero and one bits (512 each in an experiment of 1024 bits) are considered neutral and do not change the cumulative result. Here we plot the cumulative deviation by intent as z: the number of standard deviations by which it differs from the expectation value of zero.

RPKP Experiment Cumulative Intent Deviation from Expectation

Runs by Subjects Histogram

The following table shows the number of experiments run by various subjects, and the cumulative results and standard deviation for each number of experiments. Individual subjects who have made a large number of runs appear show up at the bottom of the the table, and the results they obtained can be compared.

Experiments
Run
Number of
Subjects
Hits/Tries  z 
1 13070 6683229/13383680 4.7076
2 5922 6060692/12128256 1.9733
3 3740 5742373/11489280 1.3376
4 2225 4554058/9113600 1.8166
5 1584 4056524/8110080 1.0422
6 1114 3423194/6844416 0.7538
7 805 2883357/5770240 1.4679
8 614 2515561/5029888 0.5502
9 519 2391435/4783104 0.1070
10 467 2390237/4782080 0.7344
11 353 1987268/3976192 0.8305
12 304 1867860/3735552 0.0869
13 274 1823472/3647488 0.2848
14 239 1712636/3426304 0.5575
15 216 1658715/3317760 0.1812
16 170 1393747/2785280 1.3266
17 140 1219246/2437120 0.8789
18 125 1151902/2304000 0.1291
19 124 1205893/2412544 0.4880
20 123 1260506/2519040 1.2425
21 101 1086167/2171904 0.2918
22 87 979434/1959936 0.7629
23 74 871337/1742848 0.1318
24 62 762512/1523712 1.0629
25 71 908660/1817600 0.2077
26 63 839864/1677312 1.8655
27 66 912684/1824768 0.4442
28 45 645576/1290240 0.8029
29 49 726347/1455104 1.9979
30 51 782266/1566720 1.7480
31 41 651548/1301504 1.3955
32 47 771208/1540096 1.8695
33 42 710674/1419264 1.7493
34 38 661608/1323008 0.1808
35 31 555580/1111040 0.1138
36 37 682992/1363968 1.7262
37 34 642365/1288192 3.0503
38 39 758353/1517568 0.6997
39 25 498990/998400 0.4203
40 37 758327/1515520 0.9212
41 28 587844/1175552 0.1254
42 22 472956/946176 0.2714
43 21 462455/924672 0.2475
44 20 450857/901120 0.6257
45 15 344963/691200 1.5324
46 19 447340/894976 0.3129
47 19 457694/914432 0.9997
48 14 343822/688128 0.5835
49 13 326340/652288 0.4854
50 16 409534/819200 0.1458
51 23 600337/1201152 0.4361
52 20 533707/1064960 2.3780
53 12 325634/651264 0.0050
54 7 193741/387072 0.6590
55 19 535947/1070080 1.7536
56 16 459495/917504 1.5514
57 10 292299/583680 1.2016
58 11 326346/653312 0.7671
59 10 302080/604160 0.0000
60 18 553231/1105920 0.5154
61 10 312380/624640 0.1518
62 13 412557/825344 0.2532
63 15 484375/967680 1.0877
64 9 294277/589824 1.6536
65 8 266841/532480 1.6472
66 10 337693/675840 0.5522
67 13 445559/891904 0.8323
68 7 243999/487424 0.8222
69 6 212266/423936 0.9154
70 9 322748/645120 0.4681
71 10 363437/727040 0.1947
72 8 295314/589824 1.0469
73 3 112077/224256 0.2154
74 9 340337/681984 1.5863
75 6 230329/460800 0.2092
76 7 272289/544768 0.2574
77 5 196887/394240 0.7422
78 8 319446/638976 0.1051
79 4 162332/323584 1.8986
80 5 204953/409600 0.4781
81 5 207292/414720 0.2112
82 6 251709/503808 0.5495
83 2 84897/169984 0.4608
84 2 86078/172032 0.2990
85 2 87098/174080 0.2780
86 5 220155/440320 0.0151
87 2 88863/178176 1.0661
88 7 315248/630784 0.3626
89 2 91526/182272 1.8270
90 2 91843/184320 1.4767
91 3 139739/279552 0.1400
92 6 282565/565248 0.1570
93 4 190543/380928 0.2560
94 2 96460/192512 0.9299
95 5 242841/486400 1.0295
96 2 98517/196608 0.9607
97 3 149407/297984 1.5205
98 2 100457/200704 0.4688
99 5 253044/506880 1.1124
100 7 358282/716800 0.2787
101 6 310369/620544 0.2463
102 3 157014/313344 1.2219
103 2 105203/210944 1.1714
104 5 266194/532480 0.1261
106 2 108628/217088 0.3606
107 1 54683/109568 0.6103
108 6 332114/663552 0.8299
109 1 55742/111616 0.3951
110 2 112340/225280 1.2641
111 3 170848/340992 1.2056
112 4 229540/458752 0.4843
113 2 115537/231424 0.7276
114 8 467373/933888 0.8879
115 3 176845/353280 0.6898
116 8 475697/950272 1.1510
117 2 120024/239616 0.8825
118 5 301446/604160 1.6313
119 3 183021/365568 0.7840
120 5 307260/614400 0.1531
121 2 124061/247808 0.6308
122 4 249676/499712 0.5093
123 2 125473/251904 1.9087
124 1 63580/126976 0.5164
126 2 128874/258048 0.5906
127 2 130153/260096 0.4118
128 1 65799/131072 1.4529
129 3 198940/396288 2.5289
130 6 399670/798720 0.6937
132 2 135184/270336 0.0615
133 1 67967/136192 0.6991
134 2 137337/274432 0.4620
135 3 207396/414720 0.1118
136 3 208849/417792 0.1454
137 1 69880/140288 1.4097
138 2 141170/282624 0.5342
139 2 142191/284672 0.5435
140 4 286640/573440 0.2113
141 2 144591/288768 0.7704
142 1 72469/145408 1.2325
143 2 146331/292864 0.3733
144 2 147321/294912 0.4972
145 3 222983/445440 0.7881
146 3 223929/448512 0.9765
148 2 151121/303104 1.5657
149 4 304741/610304 1.0522
150 3 230294/460800 0.3123
151 2 154761/309248 0.4927
153 3 235312/470016 0.8868
154 1 79013/157696 0.8310
155 3 238627/476160 1.5854
157 1 80384/160768 0.0000
158 1 80734/161792 0.8055
159 3 244373/488448 0.4264
160 2 164434/327680 2.0754
161 3 247386/494592 0.2559
162 2 166230/331776 1.1875
164 1 83847/167936 0.5905
165 3 253492/506880 0.1461
166 2 170189/339968 0.7032
170 1 86917/174080 0.5896
171 2 174975/350208 0.4360
172 2 175786/352256 1.1525
173 1 88514/177152 0.2946
174 2 178518/356352 1.1458
175 4 358154/716800 0.5811
176 3 270883/540672 1.4878
177 2 181679/362496 1.4317
180 1 92118/184320 0.1957
182 1 93122/186368 0.2872
183 1 93828/187392 0.6099
185 1 94716/189440 0.0184
186 2 190331/380928 0.4310
187 1 95583/191488 0.7358
188 1 96634/192512 1.7230
189 3 290190/580608 0.2992
190 1 97207/194560 0.3310
191 1 97737/195584 0.2487
192 2 196641/393216 0.1053
194 1 99376/198656 0.2154
195 1 99196/199680 2.8824
197 1 100895/201728 0.1380
200 2 204715/409600 0.2656
201 2 205561/411648 0.8198
202 1 103444/206848 0.0879
204 2 209659/417792 2.3609
205 1 105150/209920 0.8294
208 2 213287/425984 0.9040
210 1 107717/215040 0.8496
212 3 325786/651264 0.3817
215 1 109939/220160 0.6010
217 1 111148/222208 0.1867
219 1 112187/224256 0.2492
222 1 113808/227328 0.6040
224 1 114861/229376 0.7224
225 1 115213/230400 0.0542
227 3 349082/697344 0.9820
229 1 117253/234496 0.0207
232 1 118732/237568 0.2134
234 1 120044/239616 0.9642
235 2 240535/481280 0.3027
236 1 120846/241664 0.0570
238 1 121802/243712 0.2188
240 1 122412/245760 1.8881
241 1 123381/246784 0.0443
245 1 125995/250880 2.2161
250 1 128051/256000 0.2016
251 1 128793/257024 1.1085
252 2 258266/516096 0.6069
258 1 132534/264192 1.7043
259 2 265473/530432 0.7057
272 1 139725/278528 1.7470
277 1 141678/283648 0.5483
278 1 142232/284672 0.3898
280 1 143009/286720 1.3110
282 1 144776/288768 1.4590
284 1 145732/290816 1.2016
286 1 146644/292864 0.7835
291 1 149196/297984 0.7474
292 1 150030/299008 1.9239
293 2 300036/600064 0.0103
296 2 303452/606208 0.8939
305 1 155684/312320 1.7035
306 1 155855/313344 2.9190
307 1 156831/314368 1.2592
313 1 160538/320512 0.9962
315 1 160439/322560 2.9616
321 1 164988/328704 2.2186
330 1 169191/337920 0.7948
332 1 169748/339968 0.8095
342 1 175610/350208 1.7101
343 1 175927/351232 1.0495
346 1 177270/354304 0.3965
348 1 178012/356352 0.5495
349 1 178566/357376 0.4082
355 1 182014/363520 0.8426
357 1 182946/365568 0.5359
368 1 188552/376832 0.4431
375 1 192355/384000 1.1458
381 1 195222/390144 0.4803
382 1 195449/391168 0.4317
383 1 196677/392192 1.8555
386 1 197210/395264 1.3425
401 2 411195/821248 1.2602
404 1 206995/413696 0.4571
416 1 213097/425984 0.3218
423 1 216977/433152 1.2186
435 2 444961/890880 1.0150
437 1 224495/447488 2.2453
438 1 223835/448512 1.2573
440 1 225551/450560 0.8075
445 1 228040/455680 0.5926
449 1 230059/459776 0.5044
450 1 230419/460800 0.0560
453 1 231803/463872 0.3906
454 1 231895/464896 1.6221
456 1 233269/466944 0.5941
465 1 238314/476160 0.6782
477 1 244153/488448 0.2032
483 1 248038/494592 2.1101
486 1 248975/497664 0.4054
500 2 512273/1024000 0.5396
504 1 258187/516096 0.3870
521 1 267573/533504 2.2480
525 1 269535/537600 2.0049
527 1 270066/539648 0.6589
531 1 271399/543744 1.2829
539 1 275737/551936 0.6219
555 1 283962/568320 0.5253
559 1 286180/572416 0.0740
579 1 296000/592896 1.1636
618 1 316245/632832 0.4299
622 1 319329/636928 2.1677
631 1 323423/646144 0.8733
659 1 337721/674816 0.7620
666 1 341240/681984 0.6006
670 1 343489/686080 1.0841
672 1 344395/688128 0.7980
698 1 357541/714752 0.3903
708 1 362383/724992 0.2654
724 1 371383/741376 1.6143
748 1 383207/765952 0.5279
765 1 390911/783360 1.7377
787 1 402579/805888 0.8132
792 1 405199/811008 0.6774
847 1 434412/867328 1.6063
864 1 442760/884736 0.8335
902 1 461910/923648 0.1790
973 1 498360/996352 0.3687
992 2 1015929/2031616 0.1698
1005 1 514573/1029120 0.0256
1024 1 523462/1048576 1.6133
1027 1 525719/1051648 0.2048
1052 1 538371/1077248 0.4875
1101 1 563674/1127424 0.0716
1234 1 631349/1263616 0.8166
1241 1 635247/1270784 0.2573
1261 1 645933/1291264 0.5298
1349 1 690715/1381376 0.0459
1360 1 695800/1392640 0.8813
1407 1 719699/1440768 1.1414
1458 1 746586/1492992 0.1473
1481 1 758020/1516544 0.4093
1652 1 846016/1691648 0.2952
1742 1 891790/1783808 0.1707
1769 1 906121/1811456 0.5840
1947 1 996742/1993728 0.1728
2000 1 1024947/2048000 1.3235
2198 1 1126814/2250752 1.9170
2257 1 1156265/2311168 0.8959
2296 1 1174949/2351104 0.7865
2325 1 1190043/2380800 0.4627
2591 1 1327380/2653184 0.9675
4210 1 2154581/4311040 0.9045
4223 1 2161820/4324352 0.3424
4261 1 2181516/4363264 0.1111
4601 1 2355712/4711424 0.0000
4731 1 2422549/4844544 0.2517
5250 1 2689581/5376000 1.3637
5724 1 2929525/5861376 0.9607
6371 1 3259087/6523904 2.2434
6565 1 3361825/6722560 0.4204
8116 1 4155091/8310784 0.2088
8325 1 4262913/8524800 0.3514
12950 1 6631971/13260800 0.8628
16832 1 8617166/17235968 0.3941

Results by Visual Feedback Program

Feedback Program Runs Hits/Tries  z 
bellcurve 191244 97917327/195833856 0.0570
clockface 82179 42074870/84151296 0.1696
experiment 983 502657/1006592 1.2738
pendulum 105552 54045324/108085248 0.5194
The table at the right shows results obtained by all subjects, sorted by the visual feedback program they selected.

Results by Goal

Goal Runs Hits/Tries  z 
0 87810 44960340/89917440 0.3417
1 292142 149576821/299153408 0.0135
Each visual feedback program allows the user to choose a goal which corresponds to either an excess of zero or one bits in the data stream. The following table gives results by goal, indicating how many times each goal was chosen. The default goal is an excess of one bits.

Control Run Report

Custom Log Report

Experiments Table of Contents

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